Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Shore » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:19 pm

Monkeyboy wrote:Or maybe there's a difference of opinion about the best way to rebuild. Gasp!

I'm surprised they haven't signed someone yet, but given the market, I guess it's understandable. I remain convinced they'll sign someone. The chance of that someone being someone who can be a part of the next playoff team is shrinking, if we can believe the buzz from the writers.

I still haven't heard anyone give a good reason not to sign a top guy, assuming the length doesn't interfere with signing guys down the road. Seems like a no brainer to me. We are so far under the cap that there's no way to mess this up unless they go too many years with someone.


Because the top guys aren't very good, nor very good investments, this year. Because spending $80M to move from 14th in the league to 12th is a waste of money. If we're going to burn cash just to burn it, spend it on something better than overpriced pitchers in a weak market.

Arrieta's trends the last 2 years are awful... IP, H/9, and HR/9 going the wrong way, big-time, 2 straight years.
Cobb has NEVER been healthy. Ever. He's 30. Why buy a guy after his first 170+ IP season, at age 29, when he missed the previous 2 with Tommy John?
Lynn was 51st out of 58 qualified SP in fWAR last year. He walks people, gives up homers, and his BABIP was really low last year.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Phred » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:24 pm

It may be hard to believe but it just may be possible that none of the guys available want to sign here. At least not yet. Free agents don't seem to be chomping at the bit to sign anywhere at the moment.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Rockinghorse » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:56 pm

There is definitely a downside to throwing ace money at a 2-3 quality starter. At some point, you'll have to pay an actual ace and he'll want more than your 2-3 guy. That would affect us even if another team was throwing money around like that...it's not a fantasy auction, the GMs have to take somewhat of a long view even when they have extra cash short term.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby smitty » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:09 pm

Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Bucky » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:12 pm

#4org
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:28 pm

Shore wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Or maybe there's a difference of opinion about the best way to rebuild. Gasp!

I'm surprised they haven't signed someone yet, but given the market, I guess it's understandable. I remain convinced they'll sign someone. The chance of that someone being someone who can be a part of the next playoff team is shrinking, if we can believe the buzz from the writers.

I still haven't heard anyone give a good reason not to sign a top guy, assuming the length doesn't interfere with signing guys down the road. Seems like a no brainer to me. We are so far under the cap that there's no way to mess this up unless they go too many years with someone.


Because the top guys aren't very good, nor very good investments, this year. Because spending $80M to move from 14th in the league to 12th is a waste of money. If we're going to burn cash just to burn it, spend it on something better than overpriced pitchers in a weak market.

Arrieta's trends the last 2 years are awful... IP, H/9, and HR/9 going the wrong way, big-time, 2 straight years.
Cobb has NEVER been healthy. Ever. He's 30. Why buy a guy after his first 170+ IP season, at age 29, when he missed the previous 2 with Tommy John?
Lynn was 51st out of 58 qualified SP in fWAR last year. He walks people, gives up homers, and his BABIP was really low last year.


The investments look even worse next year. I agree on arrieta and have said so. No interest in him. I think both Cobb and Lynn are likely to be injured at least 1 out of the 3 years we'd have them. But there's a decent shot of that happening with anyone we bring in.

I think we actually have a starting lineup that may improve at every single position from last year and the bullpen seems at least average and could be a strength. If we can get the starting pitching to anywhere around league average, I think we have a shot at being a .500 team. And the division should be bad enough that maybe we could even do a bit better. I think that means something and would have an effect on the mindset going into 2019.

People are acting like we will have no trouble landing these big names, but I don't think it will be that easy. Several big guns are saving their cash for next year and these are teams that are already good. Why go to Philly? I'm not saying we won't land one, but it shouldn't be seen as a given. Getting to .500 would give the phillies the appearance of a team that's ready to compete for a title with one or two more additions.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Slowhand » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:39 pm

@TMacPhils wrote:Love my new @tallordercom socks. If you have a foot 12 or larger, they are perfect. @bendavisnbcs let’s go. Sorry @GmurphNBCS


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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Stripes » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:39 pm

PTOITWCFTPP wrote:Scott Graham please!
Trust the prospects
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby swishnicholson » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:58 pm

Stripes wrote:
PTOITWCFTPP wrote:Scott Graham please!


Now you got me pining for some Graham Slam ice cream.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Wolfgang622 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:51 pm

Monkeyboy wrote:But the situations are wildly different. We could give out two 3 year contracts worth 20 million a year each and still not have any problem signing who we want down the road. The problem in the past is that they signed homegrown guys to really long contracts that interfered with getting other talent.


Eh, who didn’t they sign because they extended Ryan Howard? It’s not like they didn’t add a ton of payroll after the Howard extension: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, etc.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:45 am

Wolfgang622 wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:But the situations are wildly different. We could give out two 3 year contracts worth 20 million a year each and still not have any problem signing who we want down the road. The problem in the past is that they signed homegrown guys to really long contracts that interfered with getting other talent.


Eh, who didn’t they sign because they extended Ryan Howard? It’s not like they didn’t add a ton of payroll after the Howard extension: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, etc.


I figured that's who they were talking about when they said people have been complaining about the expensive long term contracts. There's nothing wrong with big contracts if they are offset with smaller ones. We just need to stay under the cap and signing Cobb or whoever won't interfere with that if we don't give too many years
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby thephan » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:38 am

I agree with Shore that the market is poor and the value is worse. Monkeyboy has a good point that the next turn is worse. So that is the conundrum. You have a #$!&@, over price market for pitching that is getting worse, not better. The only real answer would seem to be to try to work trades to get pitching while taking on garbage because the team has money. Its an only in sport business model, but that would seem to be the only actual path to success to build a case for other talent to want to come to Philly for a Broadstreet parade.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:23 am

I definitely agree that this year's market is poor. And I get that we should try to maximize the value per dollar on the team. But we are one of the few teams that has the cap space and resources to take advantage of this market. I know that isn't the approach we should normally take, but it fits the situation. Our strategy should fit the situation and we should adapt as needed. Given our pitching situation, I think we need to go after a couple guys. The young pitchers will find innings at AAA or in the last spot or two of the rotation. They'll all get shots, either through starting or the bullpen. You almost always need 7 or 8 pitchers.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Bill McNeal » Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:27 am

Maybe the Howard deal didn’t stop them from signing cliff lee or Halladay or Hamels or Papelbon, but it all adds up. Why give out a 6 year deal now because we can afford it at the expense of future years. Look at the 2013 club

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia ... yroll/2013

Cliff and Cole had pretty great years but we finished with the third worst runs per game 4th worst era.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:30 am

yeh, I wouldn't do a 6 year deal. I wouldn't go over 3 or 4, but I'd be willing to significantly overpay AAV to get them to sign that 3 year contract.

I think everyone has been against the 6 year deal, unless I missed it
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby heyeaglefn » Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:51 am

I am going to wait to see what the Pitching contracts look like when they are given out before trying to second guess their approach. The Darvish contract shows he wasn't going to take less years even with a significant overpay of AAV, and I am not sure the other guys will either. It's one thing to say they should do it this way, but it is another for the people they are targeting to actually be on board with it.

Also got to consider the winning factor with at least the top guys, big difference between going to a Cubs team compared to where the Phillies are currently at.
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby The B1G Piece » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:12 am

Bowden released his Top 50 prospects on the Athletic this morning:

12. Kingery (he is a huge fan, reminds him of a young Altuve)
29. Sixto
32. Crawford
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby smitty » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:05 pm

Bill McNeal wrote:Maybe the Howard deal didn’t stop them from signing cliff lee or Halladay or Hamels or Papelbon, but it all adds up. Why give out a 6 year deal now because we can afford it at the expense of future years. Look at the 2013 club

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia ... yroll/2013

Cliff and Cole had pretty great years but we finished with the third worst runs per game 4th worst era.


I miss Phillipe Aumont.

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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby BigEd76 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:28 pm

powder blue throwbacks for some Thursday HOME games this year!
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Re: Not without my Manny (aka the Phillies thread)

Postby Rockinghorse » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:08 pm

Sacrilege! We should boycott Thursday home games
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