Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Yes
38
70%
No
1
2%
Not durable enough to say yes right now
6
11%
Too young to say
9
17%
No Comment
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 54

Re: Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Postby phatj » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:02 pm

And... I'm dumb. Ignore the two above posts
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Re: Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Postby Wolfgang622 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:14 pm

I think you arrived at your original figure by adding Pedro’s walks plus hits plus HBP allowed and subtracting it from his K total, which leaves you with plus 32.

This seems to me to be a sounder methodology that figuring it by IP times 3 (I.e., outs recorded) minus batters faced to arrive at base runners allowed... but I am unsure as to why.

As I think about it, I turn to the old strikeout wild pitch, which is considered a strikeout of course, but is not considered a time on base, and it isn’t an out either. So there might be some discrepancy from that, but actually that doesn’t make sense because, since I assume the number of strikeouts is fixed for both methodologies, what must change is what you are subtracting. Somehow, walks plus hits plus HBP winds up being more baserunners than batters faced minus outs recorded would suggest.

Does he not get credit for a batter faced if he finishes a batter someone else started because he was brought in in the middle of the AB? But how often could that have ever happened to Pedro?

Hmmm, a bit of a puzzle.
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Re: Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Postby phatj » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:52 pm

Wolfgang622 wrote:I think you arrived at your original figure by adding Pedro’s walks plus hits plus HBP allowed and subtracting it from his K total, which leaves you with plus 32.

This seems to me to be a sounder methodology that figuring it by IP times 3 (I.e., outs recorded) minus batters faced to arrive at base runners allowed... but I am unsure as to why.

As I think about it, I turn to the old strikeout wild pitch, which is considered a strikeout of course, but is not considered a time on base, and it isn’t an out either. So there might be some discrepancy from that, but actually that doesn’t make sense because, since I assume the number of strikeouts is fixed for both methodologies, what must change is what you are subtracting. Somehow, walks plus hits plus HBP winds up being more baserunners than batters faced minus outs recorded would suggest.

Does he not get credit for a batter faced if he finishes a batter someone else started because he was brought in in the middle of the AB? But how often could that have ever happened to Pedro?

Hmmm, a bit of a puzzle.

The problem with using BF minus Outs to determine when no baserunner was allowed is that it is possible to allow a baserunner and subsequently record an out without having faced another batter.
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Re: Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:00 pm

phatj wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:I think you arrived at your original figure by adding Pedro’s walks plus hits plus HBP allowed and subtracting it from his K total, which leaves you with plus 32.

This seems to me to be a sounder methodology that figuring it by IP times 3 (I.e., outs recorded) minus batters faced to arrive at base runners allowed... but I am unsure as to why.

As I think about it, I turn to the old strikeout wild pitch, which is considered a strikeout of course, but is not considered a time on base, and it isn’t an out either. So there might be some discrepancy from that, but actually that doesn’t make sense because, since I assume the number of strikeouts is fixed for both methodologies, what must change is what you are subtracting. Somehow, walks plus hits plus HBP winds up being more baserunners than batters faced minus outs recorded would suggest.

Does he not get credit for a batter faced if he finishes a batter someone else started because he was brought in in the middle of the AB? But how often could that have ever happened to Pedro?

Hmmm, a bit of a puzzle.

The problem with using BF minus Outs to determine when no baserunner was allowed is that it is possible to allow a baserunner and subsequently record an out without having faced another batter.

Yup, you'd need to account for GIDPs, Caught Stealings, and any other number of miscellaneous plays like Outfield Assists or unconventional double plays.
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Re: Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Postby WilliamC » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:41 pm

I think it will be down to Scherzer and Nola for Cy Young. DeGrom may be having the best year but they still give W-L stupidly a lot of attention. More than it deserves anyway. Nola and Scherzer could win 20+ with low 2 ERA's.

Scherzer might get the LeBron treatment if it is really close. "Let's give it to someone else."
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Re: Is Nola a Legit Ace?

Postby gr » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:16 pm

WilliamC wrote:I think it will be down to Scherzer and Nola for Cy Young. DeGrom may be having the best year but they still give W-L stupidly a lot of attention. More than it deserves anyway. Nola and Scherzer could win 20+ with low 2 ERA's.

Scherzer might get the LeBron treatment if it is really close. "Let's give it to someone else."


And if the phils are the only 1 of those 3 teams to make the playoffs
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