Rolling rumors thread

Postby BigEd76 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:13 am

Astros.com:

Jason Jennings, who was hurt for much of the season but still may command high dollars on the free agent market this winter, appears to be drawing interest from several contending teams who need a starter to slide into the middle of their rotations.

"If I'm going to be traded, I'm going to be traded," he said.
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Postby kenrosenthal » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:14 am

According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, the Red Sox had a three-way deal in place for Jermaine Dye that fell through because of an unspecified issue with a player from the third club.
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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:17 am

MARKET REPORT
• Forget that talk that Baltimore's Daniel Cabrera and Oakland's Joe Blanton might be on the market. Texas is believed to have talked to the Orioles about Cabrera in a potential Teixeira trade but got shot down. And the buzz is that the Phillies made runs at both Cabrera and Blanton recently. But neither of those guys is going anywhere.


With Chase Utley's injury, Aaron Rowand is off the market once and for all.


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Postby kenrosenthal » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:19 am

at least it seems they are trying to do something. cabrera would have been an interesting pickup, considering that he is a power pitcher who struggles with command.

I find the thing about rowand thing temporary. come the july 31st deadline, I think rowand's status could change
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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:22 am

kenrosenthal wrote:at least it seems they are trying to do something. cabrera would have been an interesting pickup, considering that he is a power pitcher who struggles with command.

I find the thing about rowand thing temporary. come the july 31st deadline, I think rowand's status could change


Ken, I thought we'd been over this before. No one is going to give the Phillies good prospect(s) for Rowand, because

a. Most GM's don't overpay for impending FA's
b. Most contenders don't need a centerfielder

Rowand will not be traded.
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Postby kenrosenthal » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:24 am

FTN wrote:Ken, I thought we'd been over this before. No one is going to give the Phillies good prospect(s) for Rowand, because

a. Most GM's don't overpay for impending FA's
b. Most contenders don't need a centerfielder

Rowand will not be traded.


yea, yea. I understand, I just dont want to accept the fact that the Phils will trade Bourn. Floppy, do you think rowand will be a type A free agent?
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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:26 am

kenrosenthal wrote:
FTN wrote:Ken, I thought we'd been over this before. No one is going to give the Phillies good prospect(s) for Rowand, because

a. Most GM's don't overpay for impending FA's
b. Most contenders don't need a centerfielder

Rowand will not be traded.


yea, yea. I understand, I just dont want to accept the fact that the Phils will trade Bourn. Floppy, do you think rowand will be a type A free agent?


Probably.

I'd prefer they kept both guys, but Bourn will bring us the best pitcher in return.
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Postby Disco Stu » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:35 am

FTN wrote:
kenrosenthal wrote:at least it seems they are trying to do something. cabrera would have been an interesting pickup, considering that he is a power pitcher who struggles with command.

I find the thing about rowand thing temporary. come the july 31st deadline, I think rowand's status could change


Ken, I thought we'd been over this before. No one is going to give the Phillies good prospect(s) for Rowand, because

a. Most GM's don't overpay for impending FA's
b. Most contenders don't need a centerfielder

Rowand will not be traded.


I don't agree on either of those statements.
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Postby MoBettle » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:36 am

Unless he goes into a major tailspin he's gotta be a lock for type A.

I know he had a crappy year in 06, but the guy has the 7th highest VORP among OFs in baseball so far this year.
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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:48 am

Disco Stu wrote:
FTN wrote:
kenrosenthal wrote:at least it seems they are trying to do something. cabrera would have been an interesting pickup, considering that he is a power pitcher who struggles with command.

I find the thing about rowand thing temporary. come the july 31st deadline, I think rowand's status could change


Ken, I thought we'd been over this before. No one is going to give the Phillies good prospect(s) for Rowand, because

a. Most GM's don't overpay for impending FA's
b. Most contenders don't need a centerfielder

Rowand will not be traded.


I don't agree on either of those statements.


Of course you don't. I'd love to hear your thoughts. Add lots of !!!!! and CAPS too for emphasis.

Gillick won't trade Rowand to an NL team competing with us for the wildcard.

Yankees = Melky/Damon
Red Sox = Crisp
Indians = Sizemore
Tigers = Granderson
Angels = Matthews
Mariners = Ichiro

So, who needs a CF?
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Postby mpmcgraw » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:51 am

FTN wrote:Gillick won't trade Rowand to an NL team competing with us for the wildcard.

I'd think the most likely scenario of Rowand being traded would involve Gillick conceding the year, so I don't agree with this.

Although I think there is a 99% chance Rowand is still here come Aug 1.
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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:12 am

mpmcgraw wrote:
FTN wrote:Gillick won't trade Rowand to an NL team competing with us for the wildcard.

I'd think the most likely scenario of Rowand being traded would involve Gillick conceding the year, so I don't agree with this.

Although I think there is a 99% chance Rowand is still here come Aug 1.


Ok, even if he would...

Mets = Beltran
Brewers = Hall/Hart
Padres = Cameron
Dodgers = Pierre
Dbags = Young

The only team left is Chicago, and because of the state of their ownership, they are probably not allowed to add payroll, and their farm system is barren.

So, what situation do you see us trading Rowand and getting a beneficial piece in return?
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Postby mpmcgraw » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:20 am

You don't think the Mets, Padres, or Dodgers could find a place in their OF for Rowand?

I have to think they would want him and it's not really that uncommon for CF's to slide to a different OF position.
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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:39 am

mpmcgraw wrote:You don't think the Mets, Padres, or Dodgers could find a place in their OF for Rowand?

I have to think they would want him and it's not really that uncommon for CF's to slide to a different OF position.


No.

The Mets were rumored to be in on Dye, but they won't trade for him if they think Alou will return healthy. Plus, they won't trade a top prospect within the division.

The Padres have Bradley, Giles and Cameron. They just traded for Scott Hairston. Rowand isn't taking playing time away from Bradley, Giles or Cameron.

The Dodgers have a ridiculous number of outfielders already on their roster. Pierre, Kemp, Gonzo, Ethier.
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Postby mpmcgraw » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:50 am

FTN wrote:
mpmcgraw wrote:You don't think the Mets, Padres, or Dodgers could find a place in their OF for Rowand?

I have to think they would want him and it's not really that uncommon for CF's to slide to a different OF position.


No.

The Mets were rumored to be in on Dye, but they won't trade for him if they think Alou will return healthy. Plus, they won't trade a top prospect within the division.

This is flat out wrong. They traded prospects to the Marlins just a few years ago in the Delgado trade.

The Padres have Bradley, Giles and Cameron. They just traded for Scott Hairston. Rowand isn't taking playing time away from Bradley, Giles or Cameron.

Why? Bradley is pretty terrible his contract is up after this year and they don't really have a lot of money invested in him.

The Dodgers have a ridiculous number of outfielders already on their roster. Pierre, Kemp, Gonzo, Ethier.

I'll give you that. Their outfield has produced very well outside of Pierre and I don't think the Dodgers realize how bad he is.
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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:01 am

Owens and Lindstrom, the prospects traded, we're not top prospects, they were middle relievers. You won't get Humber/BIG PELF/Milledge/Gomez/Martinez from the Mets for Rowand, and their prospects underneath that really aren't worth trading him.

Also, San Diego's farm system is actually pretty weak. Newly acquired Will Inman is probably their best pitching prospect, and he's a #4 starter. Chase Headly is a decent 3B prospect, but is probably only a grade above Costanzo, likely a B-/B prospect.

I guess I just don't see the Rowand scenarios as realistic. Connected people seem to think Rowand is off the market, so the speculation seems futile.
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Postby Disco Stu » Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:03 am

FTN wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:
FTN wrote:
kenrosenthal wrote:at least it seems they are trying to do something. cabrera would have been an interesting pickup, considering that he is a power pitcher who struggles with command.

I find the thing about rowand thing temporary. come the july 31st deadline, I think rowand's status could change


Ken, I thought we'd been over this before. No one is going to give the Phillies good prospect(s) for Rowand, because

a. Most GM's don't overpay for impending FA's
b. Most contenders don't need a centerfielder

Rowand will not be traded.


I don't agree on either of those statements.


Of course you don't. I'd love to hear your thoughts. Add lots of !!!!! and CAPS too for emphasis.

Gillick won't trade Rowand to an NL team competing with us for the wildcard.

Yankees = Melky/Damon
Red Sox = Crisp
Indians = Sizemore
Tigers = Granderson
Angels = Matthews
Mariners = Ichiro

So, who needs a CF?


why does he have to be a center fielder? He could play corner, make for an even awsomer defense and still hit better than some of the corner fielders.

Yankees area pass since they already have 4 outfielders.

Boston CF and RF positions have sucked with Crisp and Drew. Both have OPSs in the mid to low .700s. I could possibly see them replacing Crisp, but not Drew.

Cleveland has Trot Nixon in RF and he has sucked. They have JMike in left and he has been average. Rowand could replace either.

In Detroit Craig Monroe has sucked worse than suckage. Easy replacement there.

Angels have Willits who has been a good OB machine in left. JR has sucked, but they aren't replacing him. However, they have no DH and Vlad or someone can go there to have Rowand play the outfield.

Mariners have Raul Ibanez in LF and Vidro as DH. Rowand has a spot to play there.

You seem to want to pigeonhole him to CF to try to make a point, but almost eevry team could use an outfielder who has an OPS north of .900 and can run and catch fairly well.
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Postby Disco Stu » Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:09 am

FTN wrote:
mpmcgraw wrote:
FTN wrote:Gillick won't trade Rowand to an NL team competing with us for the wildcard.

I'd think the most likely scenario of Rowand being traded would involve Gillick conceding the year, so I don't agree with this.

Although I think there is a 99% chance Rowand is still here come Aug 1.


Ok, even if he would...

Mets = Beltran
Brewers = Hall/Hart
Padres = Cameron
Dodgers = Pierre
Dbags = Young

The only team left is Chicago, and because of the state of their ownership, they are probably not allowed to add payroll, and their farm system is barren.

So, what situation do you see us trading Rowand and getting a beneficial piece in return?


Mets: Do they even have a LF?

Brewers: Hall/Hart are not all-star CF/LFs and can be replaced.

Padres: Cameron can't be replaced either? They have names out there, but they all have sucked this year.

Dodgers: If they were smart, they'd replace Pierre. That being said, they won't.

Diamondbacks: Young isn't replacable as a CF?!?!?! Sure, he's young (HA), but he sucks. They also don't have a LF.

So, of all the contenders, only 3 may have no use or not think that they need an OF/DH. The Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. All the others are possibilities. I am not saying he sill be traded, but there is CERTAINLY a market.
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Postby Wizlah » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:02 am

scottdg wrote:Just a coincidence. Do you really think that entered into Gillick's mind? He knew when drafting Drabek that he was at least 4-5 years from seeing the majors. Do you think he thought or still thinks Charlie will be his manager in 4-5 years?


Yes, you're right - it is a coincidence that the manuel is currently in place whilst gillick is signing people like drabek. And drabek is really the only case I can think of under gillick's watch. Although I wonder if it indicates that gillick is taking a flyer on players that other clubs won't touch in the draft because of character issues, there is no indication of a strategy as yet.

If he is, he might do something with olson. I think the fact that manuel is currently in place and the players respond well to him would be a factor in favour of making the deal.

Test case for why we wouldn't go for olson is Milton Bradley - we didn't seem to budge at all for him - but then I don't think gillick perceives the outfield to be a problem right now.
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Postby allentown » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:55 am

This is a natural strategy for Phillies and one also followed by Wade with the Hamels signing. The Phillies need to draft and sign prospects who have the potential to be future stars. The GM/Arby are severely hindered in doing this because the Phillies have done well enough at the major league level to not have a primo first round pick in a while. Ownership will not allow them to do a big time slot bust like the Yankees, Cardinals, Mariners etc (yes we can go over $100K for the occassional guy, but we are not the team that is going to sign one of the top 6 of the years prospects when he falls for signability issues). Ownership aslso seems to not permit Latin American signings above about $500 K, eliminating another source of top star talent mined by teams like Yankees and BoSox to make up for lack of primo first round picks. That doesn't leave much possibility for finding the future stars that the team needs to survive. This has driven us to take very talented but risky prospects like Hamels and Drabek that other teams have passed on because of health or makeup red flags. These guys have two things in common beyond the big red flags. First, they are immense talents and second they are willing to sign for slot money. That makes them ideal for the Phillies GM and Arby. Savery fits the same model, although the injury red flag was not nearly as severe as with Hamels.

Fortunately, the Phillies have good enough scouting that they have the potential to find a star outside the first round or for a few hundred thousand $ bonus in LA. Guys like Howard and D'Arby Myers are really examples of excellent scouting.
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