END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby WhiteyFan » Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:17 pm

CBS Fantasy article predicting breakout season from Pivetta. That would be fantastic.

Nick Pivetta's FIP was nearly a run lower than his ERA in 2018, which right off the bat suggests he had some bad luck, suffering at the hands of a league-worst defense and inflated BABIP. In the areas over which he has the most control, though, he took a big step forward, his 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings ranking 11th among qualifiers, with his 3.69 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranking 21st. And the FIP itself wasn't totally pure, having been inflated by one of the worst home run-to-fly ball rates in the game. Bad luck all around, right? Between the Phillies' efforts this offseason to shore up their defense and good, old-fashioned statistical regression, Pivetta isn't such a long shot for Carlos Carrasco-type numbers in his third major-league season.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby ek » Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:27 pm

I truly think we get Harper. Machado dont see it. I think it stretches for a while though. maybe into spring training
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby BigEd76 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:39 pm

It'd be nice to get Machado on a 1-year deal if possible
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby ReadingPhilly » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:45 pm

even nicer to get him for multiple years.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby Bucky » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:51 pm

more even nicer to get them both on multiple year deals
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby heyeaglefn » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:52 pm

And get them both cheap on multiple years.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby ek » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:56 pm

outstanding points by all
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby Bucky » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:59 pm

they don't call us "the best basebal talk online" for nuttin'
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby swishnicholson » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:03 pm

Bucky wrote:they don't call us "the best basebal talk online" for nuttin'


If we're here for nuttin', this is about the strangest crew around.
Which part? And who are you?
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby Shadow » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:09 pm

Klentak today on 97.5 didn’t shut the door on signing both, which kinda falls in line with what I’ve heard that it may not be considered likely by the organization but Middleton at no point has ever told anyone he’s not interested in both and if the money works they would be. I’ve said that on here several times since free agency began and I’ve heard nothing differently. Now that could mean if one agreed to an out year midway through the contract so the Phillies are protected. It could mean strictly monetary value or a combination of both.

However, if they are going to prioritize one, I’m not sure that it isn’t going to be Machado. I think the Harper stuff has gained a lot of steam lately, but most of that “steam” is through junk and fake news and has created a perception out there that the Phillies have shifted their priorities to him when I’m not sure that’s the case. The only legitimate person who is on that island is Bob Nightengale, but he’s a mouthpiece for Boras, so...

But anyway, if you’re in the camp who wants both, I think you should be rooting for the Phillies to sign Machado first. Because if they do, there appear to be less teams in on Harper, and the lure of adding a player who the city is obsessed with right now, and is more of a ticket draw and “face of the franchise” type may be too much for Middleton to resist. However, if they sign Harper first, I could see them just letting Machado go to the White Sox, unless the White Sox really wimp out on their offers and the Phillies can scoop him up on a very pay roll and team friendly deal.

That’s my take for the day.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:52 pm

If there's a 10 year 300 million deal on the table, it would be pretty foolish to take a 1 year deal unless it's for like 60 million or something ridiculous like that. In fact, if I were in Harper or Machado's position, I might hold out for a 12 year deal. Something like 420 million over 12 years probably gets it done.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:57 pm

Shadow wrote:Klentak today on 97.5 didn’t shut the door on signing both, which kinda falls in line with what I’ve heard that it may not be considered likely by the organization but Middleton at no point has ever told anyone he’s not interested in both and if the money works they would be. I’ve said that on here several times since free agency began and I’ve heard nothing differently. Now that could mean if one agreed to an out year midway through the contract so the Phillies are protected. It could mean strictly monetary value or a combination of both.

However, if they are going to prioritize one, I’m not sure that it isn’t going to be Machado. I think the Harper stuff has gained a lot of steam lately, but most of that “steam” is through junk and fake news and has created a perception out there that the Phillies have shifted their priorities to him when I’m not sure that’s the case. The only legitimate person who is on that island is Bob Nightengale, but he’s a mouthpiece for Boras, so...

But anyway, if you’re in the camp who wants both, I think you should be rooting for the Phillies to sign Machado first. Because if they do, there appear to be less teams in on Harper, and the lure of adding a player who the city is obsessed with right now, and is more of a ticket draw and “face of the franchise” type may be too much for Middleton to resist. However, if they sign Harper first, I could see them just letting Machado go to the White Sox, unless the White Sox really wimp out on their offers and the Phillies can scoop him up on a very pay roll and team friendly deal.

That’s my take for the day.


Good take. But is there a problem if the Phillies are paying Machado substantially less than Harper? Or thinking this through--if you're Machado, the implication of your take is that you might be motivated to take the Phillies offer now (assuming it's pretty close to what the Phillies are offering Harper) rather than risk the Phillies signing Harper and then reducing or even pulling their offer to Machado, leaving him to settle for whatever the White Sox are offering him?

I hope Machado is getting frequent Chicago weather updates today.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby ReadingPhilly » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:02 pm

TenuredVulture wrote:I hope Machado is getting frequent Chicago weather updates today.


it's always 80 when you get to play with jon jay.
Last edited by ReadingPhilly on Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby phillychuck » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:02 pm

TenuredVulture wrote:
I hope Machado is getting frequent Chicago weather updates today.


Not too much better here now. -25 wind chill last I looked.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby WilliamC » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:05 pm

TenuredVulture wrote:If there's a 10 year 300 million deal on the table, it would be pretty foolish to take a 1 year deal unless it's for like 60 million or something ridiculous like that. In fact, if I were in Harper or Machado's position, I might hold out for a 12 year deal. Something like 420 million over 12 years probably gets it done.



Well yeah. Neither is touching anything close to that. I wouldn't doubt that there is a degree of collusion among the owners. Also Harper may be signed and they are trying to get Machado to take the same deal without anyone getting rubbed the wrong way. 12/420 and either would be over in a second. 6/210 for each might get it done.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby heyeaglefn » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:09 pm

phillychuck wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
I hope Machado is getting frequent Chicago weather updates today.


Not too much better here now. -25 wind chill last I looked.

Philadelphia right now is showing around 0 wind chill right now according to weather site, Chicago -35.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby SixerLed3 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:11 pm

Matt Klentak tells @JSalisburyNBCS that he woke up yesterday to a bunch of congratulatory text messages. People that had seen all the Harper speculation/reports online... and texted Matt to congratulate him on the signing.


https://twitter.com/SKaneNBCS/status/10 ... 2513105920
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby WilliamC » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:12 pm

I walked outside. Was going to go to Arby's. #$!&@ that. It is cold as #$!&@ everywhere.
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby heyeaglefn » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:15 pm

SixerLed3 wrote:
Matt Klentak tells @JSalisburyNBCS that he woke up yesterday to a bunch of congratulatory text messages. People that had seen all the Harper speculation/reports online... and texted Matt to congratulate him on the signing.


https://twitter.com/SKaneNBCS/status/10 ... 2513105920

Need someone to photoshop this.

Image
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Re: END THIS STUPID THING ALREADY: Phillies Offseason

Postby TempleFan22 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:22 pm

Shadow’s sources vs. 702’s sources.
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