Switch to full style
Phillies, MLB, and Minor League discussion. Other sports topics welcome.
Post a reply

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:24 pm

FTN wrote:Also, check this out

Analysis of Lohse's whiff rates on his pitches

Basically, if DUBEE gets him to stop throwing his curveball, he could be an above average pitcher.


I just wanted to underline this. Really cool short analysis, and grounds for hope that this might work out.

If you'd asked me a day ago whether the Phils should trade Matt Maloney for Kyle Lohse, I'd probably have expressed a wish to ship a lesser prospect. But as FTN and others note, MM was not one of our best arms, and there's reason to think Lohse is a decent gamble. Though I get and agree with the "meh," reaction, this is probably better than nothing.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:25 pm

not a terrible move if he can be slightly above average like he has been.

i expect this to be the last move the phils make.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:28 pm

FTN wrote:Here's something else to consider.

Cinci has the 28th best Defensive Efficiency in baseball. Philadelphia isn't THAT much better at 20th, but a few more plays made per game could make a difference.

Also, check this out

Analysis of Lohse's whiff rates on his pitches

Basically, if DUBEE gets him to stop throwing his curveball, he could be an above average pitcher.


Since Lohse is a flyball pitcher, how does the Phillies OF defense compare to the Cincy OF? I'd guess the Phils are better especially when they go Bourn, Rowand and Vic.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:29 pm

Loshe gave up 22 ER in 19 IP against AL teams. Not so bad against NL. 45 ER in 109 IP (3.72 ERA).

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:29 pm

stevemc wrote:Why this has meh written all over it - if you look at the impact for THIS season - Lohse seems to give you the same as (what some wanted to trade Bourn for) Anthony Reyes

Reyes - 70 IP, 6.37K/9, 1.34 WHIP, .771 OPS

Lohse - 131 IP, 5.47 K/9, 1.34 WHIP, .773 OPS

Although Reyes has the better K rate - they're basically doing the same thing and I'd much rather give up a Maloney than Bourn.


Myself, I'd much rather Reyes. Reyes is young, pre-arb, and has the stuff to be a top of the rotation major league starter (a potential star). Lohse is a rental, unless the Phils extend (FA after this season), and unless there were cash considerations, the Phils are on the hook for the pro-rated portion of his 2007 salary of 4.2 mil. Also, I don't like what his last name spells when you take away the "h" :mrgreen: :wink:

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:29 pm

somebody email that link to dubee

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:30 pm

FTN, could you explain a little bit about how Lohse's DERA could be so close to his NRA? Is this normal?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:30 pm

FTN wrote:Here's something else to consider.

Cinci has the 28th best Defensive Efficiency in baseball. Philadelphia isn't THAT much better at 20th, but a few more plays made per game could make a difference.

Also, check this out

Analysis of Lohse's whiff rates on his pitches

Basically, if DUBEE gets him to stop throwing his curveball, he could be an above average pitcher.


Thanks for the share. Hopefully Cole & Moyer have some friendly change-up advice for Lohse.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:32 pm

Trent Steele wrote:Loshe gave up 22 ER in 19 IP against AL teams. Not so bad against NL. 45 ER in 109 IP (3.72 ERA).


got this from another site, didn't check the accuracy

NL-only numbers are 112.7 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 3.59 ERA, 5.52 K/9, 1.92 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:34 pm

Lohse's .270 BABIP at GAB this year scares me a little bit

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:36 pm

STOCK UP ON TICKER TAPE

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:41 pm

kenrosenthal wrote:Gillick has to be working on something else. Lohse cannot be it


What makes you think that?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:44 pm

"Kyle is a durable righthanded starter who has postseason experience," said Gillick. "We feel that with our offense and his ability to keep us in games, he will add pitching depth to our rotation."


Translation: "he'll give up 4-5 every night and we need to score at least 6"

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:47 pm

steven snell wrote:
kenrosenthal wrote:Gillick has to be working on something else. Lohse cannot be it


What makes you think that?
rumor has it relatives of ian snell have been posting all over various phillies forums all day.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:48 pm

haha, what? really?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:50 pm

milton bernard thompson wrote:
steven snell wrote:
kenrosenthal wrote:Gillick has to be working on something else. Lohse cannot be it


What makes you think that?
rumor has it relatives of ian snell have been posting all over various phillies forums all day.


Maybe because they were in town? He's from Delaware... they got bored?

Press release also noted that Lohse has gotten the 5th worst run support in the league this year. Won't have a problem with that here. As FTN noted earlier, and I concur, if Lohse starts 10 games we'll probably win 7 or 8.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:52 pm

I said if they got average pitching this team would win. Lohse is average. The problem is that the guy he should replace, Eaton, isn't the guy he will replace. Durbin has pitched well. So it might not be an upgrade. Still, the Phillies needed a sixth starter or else they'd be really up the creek in case of an injury. I hope Charlie doesn't hesitate to move Durbin back in if someone falters.

I hope FTN is right about Maloney. I really like him. He's getting stronger as the season progresses and he's the only starting pitcher left who looks major league ready.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:04 pm

I like this deal okay, if it doesn't preclude them from making other deals for pitching. I liked Maloney okay, but I'll defer to FTN's description of his upside, and so it seems like this is a move that couldn't hurt. The Phillies were screwed if they didn't have a 6th starter available at some point, and this helps them in that respect too. Certainly, I trust Lohse more than Durbin right now, and I like having Durbin in the pen as another option to keep us from overusing Gordon and Myers all the time.

Looking through Lohse's game log, it's striking how up and down his starts go. I would have been very in favor of getting an average pitcher who consistently gives up 2-4 runs in 5-7 innings most of the time. I'm not sure if those players really exist, but if they did, certainly that would be valuable to the Phillies. They can score 5 runs very easily, and can win a disproportionate share of those games. It might be tougher when he has starts where he gives up 7 or 8 runs a lot. I wonder if there really is much analysis done on the consistency of runs surrendered or some sort of standard deviation for game ERA.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:04 pm

Durbin pitched well in two games, and his shutout had a lot to do with pitching at PETCO vs. the Padres.

Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:19 pm

ColeforPresident wrote:FTN, could you explain a little bit about how Lohse's DERA could be so close to his NRA? Is this normal?


Not really sure, doesn't seem to make sense. It seems he's gotten a little better defense than the rest of his pitching mates, as his DER is .702, the team number is worse.

I was just looking for possible upside, I didn't have time to look at his THT stats.
Post a reply