Phils acquire Kyle Lohse for Matt Maloney

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:20 pm

FYI, here's some info I postyed when the Lohse rumor started 3 weeks ago:

Lohse has been pretty much league average to slightly below throuhout his career (career 95 ERA+, 103 this year). He doesn't walk many, but is a bit of a flyball pitcher (although, interestingly, he's been much better at GABP than on the road this year). League average isn't a bad thing for a 4th or 5th starter, though.

Just to be clear, Lohse is league average, but definitely not replacement level. His VORP this year is 11.8 (9.5 last year). To compare a few other pitchers, Kazmir is 12.1, Glavine 13.6, Germano 10.6, Wolf 9.7 and Randy Johnson 11.0. Replacement level is guys like Bartolo Colon (-7.9), Kip Wells (-9.4), Robinson Tejeda (-12.3), Vicente Padilla (-15.3) and our own Adam Eaton (-0.9).

Here all the Phils pitchers' VORP this year:

Code:
# NAME VORP
1 Cole Hamels 23.5
2 Jamie Moyer 14.5
3 Ryan Madson 10.2
4 Antonio Alfonseca 6.5
5 Jon Lieber 5.8
6 Kyle Kendrick 4.8
7 J.C. Romero 1.9
8 Mike Zagurski 1.8
9 Brian Sanches 1.7
10 Joseph Bisenius 1.2
11 Yoel Hernandez 1.1
12 Tom Gordon 0.9
13 Brett Myers 0.8
14 Anderson Garcia -0.5
15 Adam Eaton -0.9
16 J.D. Durbin -1.5
17 Freddy Garcia -1.5
18 Francisco Rosario -2.1
19 Zack Segovia -2.1
20 James Happ -2.3
21 Matt Smith -2.5
22 Fabio Castro -2.6
23 Jose Mesa -3.4
24 Clay Condrey -4.4
25 Geoff Geary -9.5
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Postby Disco Stu » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:21 pm

Talk about a useless move. We replace Durbin who might be mediocre or might be better with an established mediocre pitcher. And we get to trade someone from our awfully thin minor leagues to do it. And we get to pay him 1.5 mil a year.

Loshe has a career 4.83 ERA and a 5.65 K/9. Both speak crapola to me. He has a decent walk rate and looks like slightly above average on the HR, but who knows what that will translate to in CBP. My issue isn't that Maloney is a stud, but that he could have been packaged with someone else like Bourn to increase the return. Maybe Bourne doesn't get you a teir 2 starter, but him and Maloney may have.

I'd MUCH rather have Myers in the strating rotation and traded Maloney for a meh reliever.
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Postby FTN » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:25 pm

Disco Stu wrote:Talk about a useless move. We replace Durbin who might be mediocre or might be better with an established mediocre pitcher. And we get to trade someone from our awfully thin minor leagues to do it. And we get to pay him 1.5 mil a year.

Loshe has a career 4.83 ERA and a 5.65 K/9. Both speak crapola to me. He has a decent walk rate and looks like slightly above average on the HR, but who knows what that will translate to in CBP. My issue isn't that Maloney is a stud, but that he could have been packaged with someone else like Bourn to increase the return. Maybe Bourne doesn't get you a teir 2 starter, but him and Maloney may have.

I'd MUCH rather have Myers in the strating rotation and traded Maloney for a meh reliever.



Show me a link that he could have been packaged with Bourn for someone better. You're speculating. All reports out there are that no one is offering up quality pitching.

We both know there was no shot of Myers being put back in the rotation. He can't throw a cut fastball right now because he's afraid of hurting his arm again.
Last edited by FTN on Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby 21McBride » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:26 pm

according to ESPN park factors (I know), GAP is just about as bad as CBP in home runs (1.435-1.427).
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Postby JFLNYC » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:28 pm

FTN wrote:Show me a link that he could have been packaged with Bourn for someone better. You're speculating.


Isn't that the same link detailing all the other deals PG could have made for Abreu and/or Lidle a year ago?
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Postby JFLNYC » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:32 pm

21McBride wrote:according to ESPN park factors (I know), GAP is just about as bad as CBP in home runs (1.435-1.427).


According to Bill James, they have identical ratings since CBP's inception.
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Postby FTN » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:37 pm

These numbers should be stressed again

112.7 IP
6-6
3.59 ERA
1.23 WHIP
69 K; 5.52 K/9
24 BB; 1.92 BB/9
2.88 K/BB
11 HR; 0.88 HR/9


Against the NL this year. If we'd traded for a pitcher with a straight 3.59 ERA, people would be pretty happy.
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Postby JFLNYC » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:43 pm

FTN wrote:These numbers should be stressed again

112.7 IP
6-6
3.59 ERA
1.23 WHIP
69 K; 5.52 K/9
24 BB; 1.92 BB/9
2.88 K/BB
11 HR; 0.88 HR/9


Against the NL this year. If we'd traded for a pitcher with a straight 3.59 ERA, people would be pretty happy.


I agree with you, James. Given what was out there and what the Phils had, Lohse is a major upgrade obtained for virtually no cost. He's a bit enigmatic and inconsistent, but may turn out to have been the best SP available at this year's deadline. Based on his stats, he's the #2 pitcher on the staff right now. The only other pitcher who might have been a better risk is Reyes, but there's no way they'd have gotten Reyes for Maloney.
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Postby karn » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:43 pm

Pretty neutral. They didn't give up anything, but Lohse isn't much of a prize. His best month career-wise has been August (3.96 era) and he's been a slightly better second-half pitcher.
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Postby pacino » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:43 pm

Are we sending down Durbin or Kendrick? I assume Kendrick?
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Postby CFP » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:44 pm

pacino wrote:Are we sending down Durbin or Kendrick? I assume Kendrick?


Probably neither. Durbin to the pen, Kendrick's not going anywhere. He's been better than Moyer and Eaton since he's been here. Second best starter behind Hamels really in the last month and a half.
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Postby 21McBride » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:44 pm

Condrey not Kendrick
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Postby pacino » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:45 pm

ColeforPresident wrote:
pacino wrote:Are we sending down Durbin or Kendrick? I assume Kendrick?


Probably neither. Durbin to the pen, Kendrick's not going anywhere. He's been better than Moyer and Eaton since he's been here. Second best starter behind Hamels really in the last month and a half.

moyer and eaton are veterans and that brings an intangible that kendrick just doesn't have
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Postby Trent Steele » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:45 pm

pacino wrote:Are we sending down Durbin or Kendrick? I assume Kendrick?


I would think Condrey goes down. Durbin to the pen.

Loshe will pitch against the Cubs, which is good. 2 starts this year:

14 IP, 2R, 0 BB, 15K
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Postby ReadingPhilly » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:46 pm

i'd send durbin out as he has said he isn't comfortable coming out of the bullpen and if he has a future here it likely will be as a starter.
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Postby WilliamC » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:47 pm

ReadingPhilly wrote:i'd send durbin out as he has said he isn't comfortable coming out of the bullpen and if he has a future here it likely will be as a starter.


Won't someone else claim him?
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Postby 21McBride » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:48 pm

Radano's blog states that Durbin could then be claimed off waivers.

J.D. Durbin looks to lose his spot in the rotation but if he's placed on waivers - out of options - he'll certainly be picked up.
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Postby pacino » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:48 pm

we should do that just so we can get durbin's name in the record books
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Postby FTN » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:48 pm

I don't think Durbin can be sent down. The current waiver period runs from May 1 to July 31. I'm pretty sure Durbin cleared waivers before May 1 and would have to clear again. Condrey has cleared, so he could be sent down before 4 PM tomorrow.
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Postby ReadingPhilly » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:50 pm

WilliamC wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:i'd send durbin out as he has said he isn't comfortable coming out of the bullpen and if he has a future here it likely will be as a starter.


Won't someone else claim him?


there seems to be some confusion as to if that is the case or not
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