[Post Draft Review] --> Werthless

[Post Draft Review] --> Werthless

Postby FTN » Tue Jan 27, 2009 2:26 pm

Washington Senators
Manager: Casey Stengal

C - Gene Tenace
1B - Lou Gehrig
2B - Bobby Grich
3B - Edgar Martinez
SS - Hanley Ramirez
OF - Gary Sheffield
OF - Ralph Kiner
OF - Charlie Keller

C - Darren Daulton
CI - Eric Chavez
MI - Nomar Garciaparra
OF - Larry Doby
OF - Lenny Dykstra

SP - Roger Clemens
SP - Lefty Grove
SP - Dizzy Dean
SP - Rich Harden
SP - Kid Nichols

RP - Jonathon Papelbon
RP - Francisco Rodriguez
RP - Brian Harvey
RP - Brian Fuentes
RP - Akinori Otsuka
RP - JJ Putz
RP - Rafael Perez
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Postby Werthless » Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:49 pm

Actual Stats (rankings are according to OPS+, of those drafted at that position)

C - Gene Tenace _____388/429/817 with an OPS+ of 136 (2nd) over 15 seasons
1B - Lou Gehrig ______447/632/1079 with an OPS+ of 179 (1st) over 17 seasons
2B - Bobby Grich _____371/424/795 with an OPS+ of 125 (8th) over 17 seasons
3B - Edgar Martinez ___418/515/933 with an OPS+ of 147 (t-1st) over 18 seasons
SS - Hanley Ramirez___ 379/527/906 with an OPS+ of 135 (4th) over 4 seasons
OF - Gary Sheffield ____394/516/910 with an OPS+ of 141 (28th) over 21 seasons
OF - Ralph Kiner _______398/548/946 with an OPS+ of 149 (17th) over 10 seasons
OF - Charlie Keller _____410/518/928 with an OPS+ of 152 (16th) over 13 seasons

C - Darren Daulton ____357/427/784 with an OPS+ of 114 (24th) over 14 seasons
CI - Eric Chavez _______346/484/830 with an OPS+ of 117 (15th) over 11 seasons
MI - Nomar Garciaparra _363/525/888 with an OPS+ of 125 (4th) over 13 seasons
OF - Larry Doby _______386/490/876 with an OPS+ of 136 (40th) over 13 seasons
OF - Lenny Dykstra ____375/419/794 with an OPS+ of 120 (70th) over 12 seasons

SP - Kid Nichols _____361-208 record, 2.95 ERA, 1.22 whip, 140 ERA+ (8th ), neutralized ERA of 2.10 over 15 years
SP - Lefty Grove ____300-141 record, 3.06 ERA, 1.28 whip, 148 ERA+ (2nd ), neutralized ERA of 2.49 over 17 years
SP - Roger Clemens__354-184 record, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 whip, 143 ERA+ (6th ), neutralized ERA of 2.79 over 24 years
SP - Dizzy Dean _____150-83 record, 3.02 ERA, 1.21 whip, 130 ERA+ (24th ), neutralized ERA of 2.90 over 12 years
SP - Rich Harden _____41-20 record, 3.23 ERA, 1.21 whip, 136 ERA+ (14th ), neutralized ERA of 2.95 over 6 years

RP - Jonathon Papelbon ___1.84 ERA, 0.93 whip, 254 ERA+, neutralized ERA of 1.61 over 4 years
RP - Francisco Rodriguez __2.35 ERA, 1.11 whip, 189 ERA+, neutralized ERA of 2.16 over 7 years
RP - Brian Harvey _________2.49 ERA, 1.09 whip, 161 ERA+, neutralized ERA of 2.57 over 9 years
RP - Brian Fuentes _______3.41 ERA, 1.24 whip, 141 ERA+, neutralized ERA of 2.87 over 8 years
RP - Akinori Otsuka _______2.44 ERA, 1.16 whip, 170 ERA+, neutralized ERA of 2.44 over 4 years
RP - JJ Putz _____________3.07 ERA, 1.16 whip, 142 ERA+, neutralized ERA of 2.80 over 6 years
RP - Rafael Perez ________2.89 ERA, 1.09 whip, 156 ERA+, neutralized ERA of 2.47 over 3 years

Lineup stats:
Using Nichols as pitcher (.242 OBP and .261 SLG) and neutral stats, my starting lineup produces 6.576 runs using a 1959-2004 run scoring environment, and 6.727 runs in a 1998-2002 run scoring environment.

Average (neutralized) OBP of starting 8=.408
Average (neutralized) SLG of starting 8=.522

Average (neutralized) OBP of bench=.371
Average (neutralized) SLG of bench=.475

Average (neutralized) ERA of starters=2.65
Average (neutralized) whip of starters=1.12

Average (neutralized) ERA of relievers=2.42
Average (neutralized) whip of relievers=1.06
Last edited by Werthless on Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby Werthless » Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:51 pm

I feel like my starting lineup is really solid, having good OBP and OPS+ across the board. My team actually has the highest average OPS+ in the league. My infield is awesome, with top offensive performers at nearly every spot. Gehrig and Edgar are offensive forces, and Hanley and Grich have a lot of pop for their position, and are good at getting on base. Tenace played in a pitcher's era, and still took an insane amount of walks. My outfield has very good depth, with the 3 starters in the top 28 by OPS+. My team's a little heavy on RH, so I drafted a number of LHs for the bench to even it out, and present the possibility of platoons. Larry Doby is good enough to start, and he's probably my top guy off the bench. I drafted Chavez for his defense skills at 3rd base (6 gold gloves), and he could sub for Edgar Martinez in the late innings. I needed no replacement at 1B for Lou Gehrig, since he would play every day, so I was the only team to choose a 3B for the CI position. Nomar is one of the top offensive SS of all time, so I picked his bat up relatively early in the draft for the reserve spot. Daulton and Dykstra have a special place in my heart, and having their LH bats makes for a decent platoon possibility at C and OF. They also were great on base machines who will inspire their teammates to achieve greatness, channeling their inner '93 Phillies (minus the WS loss).

My starting pitching is where my team stands out. I drafted pitchers who were able to dominate in eras of high offensive output. The ERA+ show this, and the W-L records demonstrate this to a certain extent. Grove and Dean were 2 of the best pitchers in the 30s, and Clemens and Harden have great ERAs considering all the runs that are scored nowadays. Nichols may have been the best of the bunch, dominating the national league throughout the 1890s and into the early 1900s. He was one of the top 2 pitchers nearly every year, dominating his peers, and he has a sick neutralized ERA of 2.10. Looking at ERA+, all 5 of my starters are in the top 24 of starters drafted, and my top 3 fall in the top 8. My top 3 also are all 300 game winners, showing that they had super long peaks.

When building my relief pitching, I made sure to draft players who could completely dominate an opposing hitter. With my deep starting rotation, I expect a lot of 7 and 8 inning starts (as well as CGs), so I tended to focus on guys who could be counted on to mow down an opponent for 1 inning. Due to how relief pitchers' usage has changed over the years, this meant that the players I drafted primarily played in the last 15 years. Their K rates are really sick, and none of these relievers are purely left-handed or right-handed specialists (I have 2 Lefties). All of the guys have the stuff to close, so I'll use Papelbon for late inning 1 run games and tie games, and K-Rod or Harvey for the easy saves (where K-Rod can overdo a fistpump after every successful save). I expect Fuentes and Perez to get action against middle of the orders when they're heavily LH, and that could be in any inning; they'll probably vulture quite a few saves where the 9th inning lineup has LH hitters.
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Postby Barry Jive » Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:02 pm

at least your FIP would be good
no offense but you are everything that's wrong with America
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Postby Barry Jive » Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:10 pm

(sorry to bust balls; i read through everyone else's and i don't have the endurance to come up with a witty quip for everyone so i'm quitting while i'm ahead)
no offense but you are everything that's wrong with America
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Postby philliesphhan » Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:26 pm

Werthless wrote:I drafted Chavez for his defense skills at 3rd base (6 gold gloves), and he could sub for Edgar Martinez in the 5th inning.


FYP :wink:
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Postby Werthless » Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:29 pm

philliesphhan wrote:
Werthless wrote:I drafted Chavez for his defense skills at 3rd base (6 gold gloves), and he could sub for Edgar Martinez in the 5th inning.


FYP :wink:

Says the guy with Pat Burrell on his team. When you drafted Pat, does he come with Brunt?
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Postby kruker » Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:45 pm

That is a bad ass team. I just don't think the use of OPS+ and ERA+ are a good means for this type of comparison. Your guys are going to fair extremely well under any evaluative measure, though.
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Postby philliesphhan » Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:48 pm

Werthless wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:
Werthless wrote:I drafted Chavez for his defense skills at 3rd base (6 gold gloves), and he could sub for Edgar Martinez in the 5th inning.


FYP :wink:

Says the guy with Pat Burrell on his team. When you drafted Pat, does he come with Brunt?


True, but he's not starting, and yes, Brunt is a bat boy for my team
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:49 pm

Are you currently as underemployed as I am, Werthless? Jesus, it's a work day, no?
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Postby Werthless » Wed Jan 28, 2009 9:56 am

jerseyhoya wrote:Are you currently as underemployed as I am, Werthless? Jesus, it's a work day, no?

I wrote out that that stuff days before, as we were drafting. And it required no effort to make fun of each team.
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Postby Warszawa » Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:11 pm

meh
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Postby VFB » Sat Jan 31, 2009 2:04 pm

i am concerned about the whip and k-rate of your rotation. era and wins are not reliable statistics. i dont think they would reach the playoffs in a 162game sim.
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Postby Werthless » Sat Jan 31, 2009 2:55 pm

VFB wrote:i am concerned about the whip and k-rate of your rotation. era and wins are not reliable statistics. i dont think they would reach the playoffs in a 162game sim.

Well, all of my starters played in hitter's eras. So the raw stats shown do not really demonstrate their dominance. Their average neutralized whip is 1.12, or 1.09 if you weight by IP. A guy like Lefty Grove had a 1.28 whip, but the played during the late 20s through the 1930s, when the league average era was 4.5, and the average OBP was over .345. You can't compare his raw numbers with a Walter Johnson's, who played in a league through the 1910s when the league average ERA was under 3.00.

Concerning the K-rates, again, I think it's important to compare them against their peers. You wouldn't look at Nichols' microscopic HR rate and give him extra credit here, so you similarly wouldn't punish him for striking out fewer hitters than modern pitchers. I used baseball prospectus to look up their k-rates, translated to compensate for the era they pitched in. Nichols' k-rate (6.7) compares favorably to Cy Young (6.4). Compare Dean (9.1) and Grove (8.3) to Spud Chandler (5.6). And Clemens (8.7)and Harden (8.4) have solid k-rates, and compare favorably to Cole Hamels (8.1). When you consider that each of my pitchers outperformed their peers, it's easier to appreciate how good they were.

I assume you're not too worried about Cy Young, Spud Chandler, or Cole Hamels' K-rate, right? ;)


To try to put Nichols in perspective, take his year 1896 performance. He has an ERA of 2.83 and whip of 1.31. It doesn't sound impressive until you consider that the league batting average was .290, OBP of .354. Nichols was second in the league in ERA, fourth in whip, 1st in wins. And that wasn't one of his best years. It was a typical year, playing in the same league as Cy Young.
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Postby Werthless » Sat Jan 31, 2009 5:11 pm

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Postby VFB » Sat Jan 31, 2009 7:22 pm

Werthless wrote:
VFB wrote:i am concerned about the whip and k-rate of your rotation. era and wins are not reliable statistics. i dont think they would reach the playoffs in a 162game sim.

Well, all of my starters played in hitter's eras. So the raw stats shown do not really demonstrate their dominance. Their average neutralized whip is 1.12, or 1.09 if you weight by IP. A guy like Lefty Grove had a 1.28 whip, but the played during the late 20s through the 1930s, when the league average era was 4.5, and the average OBP was over .345. You can't compare his raw numbers with a Walter Johnson's, who played in a league through the 1910s when the league average ERA was under 3.00.

Concerning the K-rates, again, I think it's important to compare them against their peers. You wouldn't look at Nichols' microscopic HR rate and give him extra credit here, so you similarly wouldn't punish him for striking out fewer hitters than modern pitchers. I used baseball prospectus to look up their k-rates, translated to compensate for the era they pitched in. Nichols' k-rate (6.7) compares favorably to Cy Young (6.4). Compare Dean (9.1) and Grove (8.3) to Spud Chandler (5.6). And Clemens (8.7)and Harden (8.4) have solid k-rates, and compare favorably to Cole Hamels (8.1). When you consider that each of my pitchers outperformed their peers, it's easier to appreciate how good they were.

I assume you're not too worried about Cy Young, Spud Chandler, or Cole Hamels' K-rate, right? ;)


To try to put Nichols in perspective, take his year 1896 performance. He has an ERA of 2.83 and whip of 1.31. It doesn't sound impressive until you consider that the league batting average was .290, OBP of .354. Nichols was second in the league in ERA, fourth in whip, 1st in wins. And that wasn't one of his best years. It was a typical year, playing in the same league as Cy Young.

"average weighted neuatrilized whip" and "baseball prospectas era translated & compensated SO/9". these are both fine statistics ;)
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