4.8.09 GT: Big Joe and the Bravos (Plus rings!)

Postby Woody » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:14 pm

Oh c'mon bake, I'm sure if you whipped out your crotchfruit at a Phillies game you'd make it onto plenty of cameras
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?
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Postby Bakestar » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:15 pm

In a holding cell downstairs because THEY WOULD ARREST ME 'CAUSE THAT'S ILLEGAL.
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Postby Marion » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:20 pm

Bakestar wrote:wait is he the guy who bought my tickets?!


:lol: No, not the same guy.
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Postby FTN » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:34 pm

Oh. I just saw this at BP, was posted before today's game. By our fav writer

by Joe Sheehan

Is there ever a must-win game in April? One of the standard arguments in the MVP discussion each season is that a particular player's performance was better in September, "when it counts," than it was at other times. The stathead counter to that is fairly simple: all games count exactly the same in the standings. That we know more about the arc of the season in September, or that a team has more time to make up a deficit in April, doesn't weight the games any differently.

The Braves and Phillies began their three-game series tied for first in the NL East. The Braves have taken the first two games, holding the Phillies to just one run total. The Braves exploited a key Phillies weakness in the first game, and have beaten up both Phillies starting pitchers. If they can win today, not only will they complete a sweep, but they'll go three games up on the Phillies. That reads almost like snark, but it's not; today's game will cause a two-game swing in the standings, standings that already favor the Braves. If it were September 8, this afternoon's contest would be the center of the baseball world. Maybe it shouldn't be, and I'm just missing something, but it's a very important game in determining who will eventually win this division. A two-game swing in the standings is massive, and if any team should know that, it's the Phillies, who won the East by a single game two years ago and by three—clinching on the next-to-last day—last season.

We miss the importance of these games early in the season because we're just not trained to look for them. But peek back a year, to April 20, 2008, and consider how important this sweep-avoiding win by the Phillies was. Think about how the Mets' bullpen failing to protect a tie, and the Phillies' bullpen throwing four shutout innings, was something of an introduction to the theme of the race. Think about how differently the last weeks of the season play out if the Mets have an extra two-game cushion in the standings.

Just because we don't know if a two-game swing will be important doesn't mean that we can't behave as if it will. Sure, these teams are going to play another 15 games, and there's plenty of time for story lines to develop. Math is math, though, and two games in the standings are enough to change an awful lot of baseball history. The Mets blew a 6-2 lead to the Brewers last April 13, eventually losing 9-7. The Mets finished one game in back of the Brewers for the NL Wild Card. You could argue that they lost that race on April 13.

The entire season matters. Each game counts exactly the same as every other, and working toward the elimination of the "when it counts" fallacy would be a very good next project for those of us in the advocacy wing of the performance analysis house.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=8721

Today was a must win. 3rd game of the season.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:38 pm

That's absurd.
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Postby lowcountry » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:45 pm

Holy balls that was awesome. My afternoon ...

-- Come out of meeting at work. Braves fans give me #$!&@ because it's 9-3. My response: "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- Continue walking to car. Get game on radio. Now it's 10-3. I'm beginning to think we do not, in fact, "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- By the time I pull into the driveway, it's 11-10. Perhaps the greatest drive home ... EVAR.
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Postby lowcountry » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:48 pm

by Joe Sheehan

Is there ever a must-win game in April? One of the standard arguments in the MVP discussion each season is that a particular player's performance was better in September, "when it counts," than it was at other times. The stathead counter to that is fairly simple: all games count exactly the same in the standings. That we know more about the arc of the season in September, or that a team has more time to make up a deficit in April, doesn't weight the games any differently.

The Braves and Phillies began their three-game series tied for first in the NL East. The Braves have taken the first two games, holding the Phillies to just one run total. The Braves exploited a key Phillies weakness in the first game, and have beaten up both Phillies starting pitchers. If they can win today, not only will they complete a sweep, but they'll go three games up on the Phillies. That reads almost like snark, but it's not; today's game will cause a two-game swing in the standings, standings that already favor the Braves. If it were September 8, this afternoon's contest would be the center of the baseball world. Maybe it shouldn't be, and I'm just missing something, but it's a very important game in determining who will eventually win this division. A two-game swing in the standings is massive, and if any team should know that, it's the Phillies, who won the East by a single game two years ago and by three—clinching on the next-to-last day—last season.

We miss the importance of these games early in the season because we're just not trained to look for them. But peek back a year, to April 20, 2008, and consider how important this sweep-avoiding win by the Phillies was. Think about how the Mets' bullpen failing to protect a tie, and the Phillies' bullpen throwing four shutout innings, was something of an introduction to the theme of the race. Think about how differently the last weeks of the season play out if the Mets have an extra two-game cushion in the standings.

Just because we don't know if a two-game swing will be important doesn't mean that we can't behave as if it will. Sure, these teams are going to play another 15 games, and there's plenty of time for story lines to develop. Math is math, though, and two games in the standings are enough to change an awful lot of baseball history. The Mets blew a 6-2 lead to the Brewers last April 13, eventually losing 9-7. The Mets finished one game in back of the Brewers for the NL Wild Card. You could argue that they lost that race on April 13.

The entire season matters. Each game counts exactly the same as every other, and working toward the elimination of the "when it counts" fallacy would be a very good next project for those of us in the advocacy wing of the performance analysis house.


Mr. Sheehan, what you've just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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Postby MattS » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:49 pm

i dont think joe sheehan actually understands performance analysis. i'm not really sure he can do long division. surely, the leverage of a sept 8 win with a 2 game difference is higher than the leverage of a april 8 win with a 2 game difference. the nationals highest leverage games are in april, the phillies highest leverage games are in september. the standard deviation of any team's performance relative to its abilities is about 6-7 games over the last 159 games of a season. over the last 20 games in a season, the standard deviation is a couple of games. there's a gigantic difference between a two-game swing when the vast majority of teams will be within 3 games of each over the last 20 games and when only a couple of good teams will be within 3 games of each other. thinking through his articles, i'm not really sure he's ever shown any ability to do performance analysis from a statistical perspective at all. he's just the figurehead who writes about the stuff davenport and silver did years ago.
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Postby FTN » Wed Apr 08, 2009 10:51 pm

MattS wrote:i dont think joe sheehan actually understands performance analysis. i'm not really sure he can do long division. surely, the leverage of a sept 8 win with a 2 game difference is higher than the leverage of a april 8 win with a 2 game difference. the nationals highest leverage games are in april, the phillies highest leverage games are in september. the standard deviation of any team's performance relative to its abilities is about 6-7 games over the last 159 games of a season. over the last 20 games in a season, the standard deviation is a couple of games. there's a gigantic difference between a two-game swing when the vast majority of teams will be within 3 games of each over the last 20 games and when only a couple of good teams will be within 3 games of each other. thinking through his articles, i'm not really sure he's ever shown any ability to do performance analysis from a statistical perspective at all. he's just the figurehead who writes about the stuff davenport and silver did years ago.


now that BP has comments, I wish you'd post there in the comments and point out the logical issues with his stuff. He seems to have developed a cult following, and when anyone calls him on the carpet, his groupies hop to attention.
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Postby MattS » Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:18 pm

i posted the part that wasn't ad hominem. probably more effective if i don't ramble about him not being to do long division.
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Postby philliesphhan » Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:45 pm

FTN wrote:Oh. I just saw this at BP, was posted before today's game. By our fav writer

by Joe Sheehan

Think about how differently the last weeks of the season play out if the Mets have an extra two-game cushion in the standings.



If we don't beat them that day, we would have....only won the division by 1 game, and the Mets would have come in 2nd place in the division on the last day of the season instead of the 2nd-to-last.

I like that he just assumes the Braves will be good, too. If the Nationals swept us last year instead of losing the last game, they would have only lost 101 games instead of 102.
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Postby philliesphhan » Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:48 pm

Also, sorry if someone already mentioned it because I haven't read through the thread, but this game really reminded me of that Braves-Phillies game last year right before the big rally started. I think it was a Saturday game, and Hamels had pitched his worst game ever, and we were down maybe 9 or 10-1 and came back. I'm so glad this game turned out that way, too.

edit: this one

I forgot how crazy that one was. The Braves scored all 9 of their runs in one inning. Weirdly, Boyer also got the loss in that one and haha Eaton got the win in one of his only relief appearances. Appropriate that he was here today.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Thu Apr 09, 2009 12:04 am

The day of the dueling game threads.
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Postby Shore » Thu Apr 09, 2009 12:08 am

FTN wrote:Shore has to be firm in the pantz right now


Still.

Helluva game. I love this team.
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Postby Rococo4 » Thu Apr 09, 2009 1:12 am

Ace Rothstein wrote:oh yeah , just remembered i saw t mac outside the WIP tent walking into the stadium and yelled at him that he sucks

nice
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Postby mcare89 » Thu Apr 09, 2009 1:36 am

jerseyhoya wrote:The day of the dueling game threads.

I forgot about how up and down entertaining that day was.
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Postby drsmooth » Thu Apr 09, 2009 7:05 am

lowcountry wrote:Holy balls that was awesome. My afternoon ...

-- Come out of meeting at work. Braves fans give me $#@! because it's 9-3. My response: "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- Continue walking to car. Get game on radio. Now it's 10-3. I'm beginning to think we do not, in fact, "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- By the time I pull into the driveway, it's 11-10. Perhaps the greatest drive home ... EVAR.


from the looks, your day at work today ought to provide a warm afterglow
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Postby Warszawa » Thu Apr 09, 2009 8:56 am

My Mets fan co-worker was doing the tomahawk chop in front of me right before I left work. :lol:
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Postby Wizlah » Thu Apr 09, 2009 10:36 am

Warszawa wrote:My Mets fan co-worker was doing the tomahawk chop in front of me right before I left work. :lol:


I'm unspeakably apoplectic on your behalf. I hope he's picking that damn thing out of his ass cheeks this morning.
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Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:56 am

Just watched that 7th inning on mlb.tv. On the radio, it sounded like a bunch of luck, but the first part of that inning was good hitting by our guys. Utley's hit was a blooper, but howard fouled off some tough pitches with two strikes before getting the hbp. Werth also fouled off two strike pitches before the walk and then Ibanez and feliz hit two tough low sinkers where they were pitched for singles. Then the wheels came off the Braves' bullpen, but our guys were patient.

And I saw Marion and the comeback baby.
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