World Series 2009 Game 4 Thread: TONIGHT IS OUR NIGHT

Postby philliesphhan » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:34 am

CalvinBall wrote:i agree bucky. ricky bo is pissed about it. i am starting not to like him, he needs to give these guys some credit. it is such a weird once in every 2,500 games circumstance that i just dont know.

i am willing to bet if this happened to ricky bo damon would have somehow scored. shut up dude.


I really like Ricky Bo when we win. He's a total bitch when we lose.
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Postby philliesphhan » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:37 am

jerseyhoya wrote:
EndlessSummer wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:Honestly we got a lot of $#@! luck tonight. Two critical bloop hits and a grounder that Jimmy normally gets playing his regular spot.

I am more heartbroken and sad than anything. It is hard to be angry at this team. They are great. No matter what happens the rest of the series we are lucky to have such a lovable bunch of guys to root for. We could be cheering for players like A-Rod, Swisher, Posada, and Damon. Guys that just don't seem like enjoyable people. Victorino, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Lee, Werth, and the rest of them are awesome. Every single one of them. Be proud of your team.

Should Lidge have been in there? I don't know. He got two outs. Almost had a third and weird crap starting happening.

We still have at least one more game with one of the best pitchers in the league throwing for us. This thing is not over. It is going to be hard but it is not over.

This is actually a great post.


Yah, I give Calvin $#@! sometimes, but that's good stuff.


Wow, just wow.

That post by Calvin might be the most rational, genuine thing I've ever read.
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Postby Fusilli Jerry » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:44 am

mozartpc27 wrote:....a hugging strangers kind of HR....


Totally agree with this. Whatever the outcome of this series I will never forget that homerun. We were all hugging on my row and I had never met any of them before in my life. Plays like that one, homerun or not (see, for example, "Rollins, Jimmy: Game 4 2009 NLCS") are why I love this game so much.
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Postby Phan In Phlorida » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:00 am

CalvinBall wrote:rollins took responsibility for for someone not being at 3rd. i dont know if it really was his fault but seriously this guy is the man for stepping up like that.

My thinking is, even with such a sift on, the thirdbaseman shouldn't be taking the throw at 2B on a SB in the first place (which might be Rollins' thinking). But in the event that he somehow does, 3B needs to be covered. A RHP's momentum is going the other way, so the catcher needs to be the one that has to start "drifting" towards 3B after the throw just in case. Chooch only needed to be halfway up the 3B line to deter the attempt.
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Postby cartersDad26 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:09 am

The only thing I was looking forward to this morning to cheer me up a little was listening to Franzke's call of Pedro's homer again - and of course it's the only thing MLB doesn't have.

Can anyone help me out here??
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Postby The Marty Show » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:00 am

cartersDad26 wrote:The only thing I was looking forward to this morning to cheer me up a little was listening to Franzke's call of Pedro's homer again - and of course it's the only thing MLB doesn't have.

Can anyone help me out here??


They do have about 10 videos of Damon's crap in the 9th, however. Shouldn't that do it? :twisted:
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Postby CalvinBall » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:30 am

So I posted what I wrote in this thread, more or less, on a friend's facebook wall because several of his statuses were gloating about how the Yankees aren't the Rays and how game one is a distant memory. Here is what he wrote:

the luck card? so you re saying the phils werent the better team than the rays or the dodgers the last year? that it was a lucky pedro feliz hit in the clincher last year? or rollins' game 4 game winning 2 run hit was luck? no the, phils were the best team last year and better than them both.

the world series is the grand stage where great players go head to head and its about who is making plays and who isnt,... Read More
whether its good pitching or consistent and timely hitting. sabathia hasnt made his best pitches against utley, and utley has taken advantage. that's what its about, not luck.

and the lovable argument, its pretty biased to say the least being the fan of the team.

cliff lee can't pitch every night.. and even if he no hits the yankees and wins 9-0, games 3 & 4 were pivotal and we took em


What say you?
Last edited by CalvinBall on Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Grotewold » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:32 am

what
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Postby CalvinBall » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:34 am

i edited that whole post pretty poorly. it is fixed now and hopefully makes a bit more sense.
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Postby iamgeorge » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:53 am

I can't stand the "luck of playing the Rays" argument because last year nobody was giving the Phils a shot of winning it. Can't have it both ways.
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Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:55 am

i think its luck that the yankee's bloops are falling and the phillies hard hit balls are finding outfielders.

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Postby thephan » Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:31 am

The luck argument has run dry with me. I have heard the Philadelphia version of it as 'magical alignment' in 2008. If the team were lucky in '08, they would not be in the series again. So put that in the box.

I would say that people should be more amazed with the talent of this Phillies team with out a predictable closer, with Hamels having a down year, with Rollins not having a great offensive season (or be more amazed that he continues to hit lead off), with the relief corps has been riddled with injuries, that Brett Myers left a big hole in the starting rotation and that JA Happ has pitched well enough for serious consideration as the NL ROY. The question should be, to those who believe in luck, how did the Phillies win so many games?

I will admit that Ibanez carrying the team in early spring was a pleasant surprise, and the late addition of Lee is very gratifying, but this all goes to good teams finding ways to win, and not being lucky.

BTW - The Phils not caving to CC and his lesser god reputation should show just how legitimate the team is. For that matter, line up the teams that have unhittable pitcher that they have hit. I think Rivera is the only one left. I will take the best for last, especially since he should be feeling a little tired about now.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:20 pm

I get the anti-luck argument, but if you, as MattS argues (and I'm pretty close to persuaded) that babip is largely luck. So, if we define lucky as having a high babip, I would guess we'll find that Yakees have been lucky this series.
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Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:30 pm

i'd love to see the line drive rate in the series compared to the two teams.
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Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:31 pm

this was a great comment on fangraphs:

The real story here is just that he gave up 5 hits on 15 balls in play, and if you were watching, you know that they were mostly bloops and grounders and hardly any line drives. Five grounders went for two hits, and none went for double plays.

grounder (infield single)
line drive (double)
flyball (sac-fly)
flyball (out)
flyball (out)
grounder (out)
flyball (out)
flyball (out)
grounder (infield single, runner to 2B)
bloop (single)
bloop (single)
flyball (out)
flyball (out)
grounder (out)
grounder (out)

Seven strikeouts, two walks, lots of bad contact induced. In truth, Blanton pitched very well last night and arguably better than Sabathia.
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Postby MattS » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:35 pm

TenuredVulture wrote:I get the anti-luck argument, but if you, as MattS argues (and I'm pretty close to persuaded) that babip is largely luck. So, if we define lucky as having a high babip, I would guess we'll find that Yakees have been lucky this series.


pitcher babip is almost entirely luck, but hitter babip is only partly luck, and team defense is only somewhat luck. however, in a short series almost all of everything is luck. the team's skill levels dictate that any game has a 55% chance of going to the favorite. that every game is won 100% or 0% of the time involves luck, either 45% for the favorites or 55% for the underdogs.

yesterday, the yankees hit 2 line drives and barely any balls past the outfielders in the first 8 innings. those 4 runs were largely luck. falling bloops, twenty hoppers, and infield hits.

when you talk about luck in general, any one game is almost all luck, but over the course of a season, a lot of that luck is minimized. babip luck for pitchers takes a decade to shine through (and then removing defense is even hard) and for hitters, it takes a few years too. i'm pretty good at looking at hitters' stats and telling you what their babip should be because i've done a lot of research on breaking it down by batted ball types.
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Postby cartersDad26 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:43 pm

The Marty Show wrote:
cartersDad26 wrote:The only thing I was looking forward to this morning to cheer me up a little was listening to Franzke's call of Pedro's homer again - and of course it's the only thing MLB doesn't have.

Can anyone help me out here??


They do have about 10 videos of Damon's crap in the 9th, however. Shouldn't that do it? :twisted:


Now the Feliz homer is gone completely from MLB.COM - wtf???
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Postby philliesphhan » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:51 pm

thephan wrote:The luck argument has run dry with me.


I don't think you understand the argument. No one is saying either team is lucky to be here. However, if one team has several ground ball and bloop hits, and the other hits several line drives right at people, then the first team was lucky.
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Postby Grotewold » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:52 pm

I was getting real mad about the Yankees luck, but calmed myself down by remembering the feeling in my stomach when Zobrist ripped that ball to right last year.
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Postby Woody » Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:03 pm

The pendulum swings back tonight. Hard.
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