MAD MONEY read first post do that first

MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:34 pm

For the first five to ten years take 400 American dollars a month and put it in the SPY. Get the company match.

To facilitate the $400 sell your car, and take the bus if necessary.

WHEN you no longer feel the 400 American dollars in your budget and you are making more money and have a six month cash reserve, no debt, and a car, then you can start with individual stocks.

Paper trade Individual stocks for several years before you use regular American dollars.

At no time could your 401k be ruined because only idiots avoid diversification. The SPY is instant diversification

Then you can pick one stock at a time and build a position on Robin hood where they charge zero dollars for trade. Also American btw.

Doing all of that you are then qualified to read this thread. Certainly owning a car is optional. All the rest is not optional.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

Move the cursor to the year that you want to examine.

Even from here, the yield curve can take a long time to invert. Once it inverts generally a recession follows a year later. It make be as long as two years. The yield curve in the early millenium is instructive.

Investors come to believe that a short term investment is better than long term because of the signs in the market. Therefore they bid up the price of short term investments relative to long term investments. This leads to a yield curve inversion.

This is the one most important indicator to check. The good thing is that it only inverts every once in awhile.

In the 2004 time frame the curve took forever to invert, and then we had the Great Recession starting in Dec 2007. It inverted about a year + earlier. For two years it was pretty flat.
Last edited by joboggi on Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:10 am, edited 6 times in total.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:16 am

http://www.philly.com/business/mnuchin- ... 81224.html

There is only one way to interpret this article

Something BIG is going to happen. ( Or Mnuchin does not know how to do his job.)

Firing Mueller would be big.
You can imagine other huuuuge issues.

It is either. Mnuchin goof or something huuuuuge.

Tick tock, and get ready to buy, not sell

Warren is buying.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby traderdave » Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:59 am

joboggi wrote:http://www.philly.com/business/mnuchin-bid-calm-markets-risks-making-bad-situation-worse-20181224.html

There is only one way to interpret this article

Something BIG is going to happen. ( Or Mnuchin does not know how to do his job.)

Firing Mueller would be big.
You can imagine other huuuuge issues.

It is either. Mnuchin goof or something huuuuuge.

Tick tock, and get ready to buy, not sell

Warren is buying.


I think both of those things are eminently possible. Anyway, market down yet another 300+ points in early trading. Merry #$!&@ Christmas to those of us that are going to have to work extra years to make up for the money lost in the last three weeks.
User avatar
traderdave
Dropped Anchor
Dropped Anchor
 
Posts: 7224
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:44 pm
Location: Here

Re: The Market

Postby 06hawkalum » Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:09 am

traderdave wrote:
joboggi wrote:http://www.philly.com/business/mnuchin-bid-calm-markets-risks-making-bad-situation-worse-20181224.html

There is only one way to interpret this article

Something BIG is going to happen. ( Or Mnuchin does not know how to do his job.)

Firing Mueller would be big.
You can imagine other huuuuge issues.

It is either. Mnuchin goof or something huuuuuge.

Tick tock, and get ready to buy, not sell

Warren is buying.


I think both of those things are eminently possible. Anyway, market down yet another 300+ points in early trading. Merry #$!&@ Christmas to those of us that are going to have to work extra years to make up for the money lost in the last three weeks.


If you are approaching retirement you may need to work extra years but if you are decades away this will probably go down as a blip that won't move the needle much in terms of your retirement date.

I am sure back in 3/2009 many people thought they would NEVER be able to retire after losing 50% over the past six months. If they just kept on buying and holding they were rewarded handsomely.

I think at this point the market is oversold and that fear is gripping investors. Things will swing in the other direction soon enough.

Just imagine how it will take off when the Dems are back in power in 2021.
06hawkalum
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 900
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:43 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:57 am

Trin did not budge.
Vix to 32.

More downside

There are two hours left today. The close is usually Interesting.

The gold chart is a buy
Last edited by joboggi on Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:01 am

I think a big thing might be Trump's increasingly erratic behavior and the fact that he doesn't have anyone responsible around him means that there isn't anyone around who can manage to contain any crisis that might emerge.
Be Bold!
User avatar
TenuredVulture
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
 
Posts: 50895
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 11:16 pm
Location: Magnolia, AR

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:05 am

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

You can explain the correction by valuation.

Certainly the speed may have to do with the Donald.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby Warszawa » Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:21 pm

joboggi wrote:Warren is buying.


Why buy now? should probably wait until it hits bottom

what are the republicans going to run on in 2020? the tax cuts were already unpopular, now the market gains from them is evaporating.

i think i'm going to call my broker and reallocate to 100% bonds
Fight This Generation
User avatar
Warszawa
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 13465
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 2:44 pm
Location: down in the park

Re: The Market

Postby 06hawkalum » Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:50 pm

Warszawa wrote:
joboggi wrote:Warren is buying.


Why buy now? should probably wait until it hits bottom

what are the republicans going to run on in 2020? the tax cuts were already unpopular, now the market gains from them is evaporating.

i think i'm going to call my broker and reallocate to 100% bonds


Market timing is a fool's errand. How are you going to recognize the bottom? It is only clear in retrospect. There are still investors who panic sold in 2008-2009 who never bought back in again.

Your losses are only on paper until you sell.
Last edited by 06hawkalum on Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
06hawkalum
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 900
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:43 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:05 pm

35
2

We are in the ballpark. 48 hours to think

there are more steps down, but there are bargains out there.

This is where it gets tricky.

Check your individual stocks.

Trin needs to be FOUR.

It could easily be Wed.

Remember we use mad money to trade, the retirement account is packed with SPY.

Max 12% until a tradable bottom.

The bottom could be in March.

Tradable bottom is just ahead
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:16 pm

06hawkalum wrote:
Warszawa wrote:
joboggi wrote:Warren is buying.


Why buy now? should probably wait until it hits bottom

what are the republicans going to run on in 2020? the tax cuts were already unpopular, now the market gains from them is evaporating.

i think i'm going to call my broker and reallocate to 100% bonds


Market timing is a fool's errand. How are you going to recognize the bottom? It is only clear in retrospect. There are still investors who panic sold in 2008-2009 who never bought back in again.

Your losses are only on paper until you sell.


If you buy at vix 45 trin 4 you are following Warren.

Buy when everyone else is selling.

That is when you buy in this market.

Tradable bottoms are pretty apparent.

Why do you think Warren was not buying.

Valuation.

You should have a list with prices for reasonable valuations.

Do your valuations on your own.

The market as a whole is still overvalued
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:25 pm

Trin 4, not 2 or 3. 4 is extreme.

At that point the great majority of the market is betting down

That is when Warren buys.

I remember GS at 105. Warren kept them afloat.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:53 pm

Warren buffet uses price to book value.

No one buys a stock unless Warren or Charlie confirm the calculation.

That is the TIME to buy. If you have mad money and your stock meets Warren's criteria, then I would flow Warren.

If you were planning to use your retirement soon you would have set it up so that it up differently.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:42 pm

We could easily have a Santa Claus rally. This year it would be the dead cat bounce off the INTERIM low.

Santa Claus rallies occur between Christmas and New year s day.

That would be yet another rally to sell into.
Last edited by joboggi on Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby Slowhand » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:43 pm

I went today. It was a mess. Everyone getting their last minute holiday food items.
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!
User avatar
Slowhand
Space Cadet
Space Cadet
 
Posts: 22612
Joined: Fri Jan 12, 2007 3:26 am
Location: Fake news

Re: The Market

Postby Bucky » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:00 pm

yeah, the have ham this week too. but i liked the place better when they had ham all the time and called it "boston chicken"
User avatar
Bucky
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 50421
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 6:24 pm
Location: You_Still_Have_To_Visit_Us

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:32 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2018-12-24

This is why you should not sell good companies. You should buy the sales.

We are just trying to find the best days to buy.

If you are about to retire most would recommend a certain allocation from the get go.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:41 pm

All but the time after the crashes in the Great Depression showed healthy gains.

There is one similarity. They raised trade barriers in the Depression.

I really do not know how these trade barriers compare to those in the Depression.

I would like someone to explain just what these trade barriers are doing to the overall economy.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:07 pm

Slowhand wrote:I went today. It was a mess. Everyone getting their last minute holiday food items.


Low hanging fruit
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: The Market

Postby joboggi » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:00 am

100% you know there is going to at least one ridiculous sell off day.

We have not had that yet.

Why not buy on that day?

On this web site we have seen GMO wishes if not orders.

There is going to be a lot of that.

Hold your fire

Vix 45
Trin 4

That may not be the absolute bottom but it will be a good buying opportunity.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Next

Return to Here We Go Again!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jerseyhoya and 8 guests