MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:25 pm

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) Tweeted:
Finally, Tesla’s product roadmap is probably the best in the biz—if they can stick to it. Our analysis last year showed that Musk typically blows his own deadlines by about 50% of the original projection 9/ https://t.co/PvFw4FvylE https://t.co/789nxIQO1o https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/10 ... 36448?s=17

The 2020 ramp up at two to three production facilities will drawf 2018, and 19.

Buy on the dip.

You would think with adequate revenue now and astonishing revenue next year the shorts would capitulate.

the overall market is also a drag.

Buy the dip.

At some point, tsla will break out of this range.

Until then buy as close to 300 as possible. 335 today.

Remember based on very near earnings, this stock should be on a steady incline.

It is the noise that drives the stock down. Some of it is self inflicted.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:29 pm

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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:30 pm

One author predicts two million Y reservations.

That may be high, but a million a year demand is there for the Y, and a pickup. EACH
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby Bucky » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:52 pm

agree on the y, but not on the pickup. I would conjecture that the venn diagram shows not a whole lot of overlap between "people who want a pickup" and "people who would driver an EV".
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:23 pm

Hi Bucky
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby Bucky » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:24 pm

hi bog
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:25 pm

https://www.google.com/search?q=imgn+st ... e&ie=UTF-8

If this continues it is the pre study release momentum.

Buy the dip.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:31 pm

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SPX

2639

Good time to sell trades.

Wait for the 2300s and lower to buy, more than likely on a trade.

At any time 1.2 book value on a growing company is a good idea.

Small investors can WAIT. LARGE investors have to buy a little at a time.

Vix 45
Trin 4

More than likely at a MINIMUM that is several weeks away.

Thinking March still.

Use the buddy system so you don't miss the capitulation day
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:56 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these ... 019-01-08K NEXT STEP

SPY OR HIGH DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS.

THESE OFTEN BEAT THE SPY.

NOT SECTOR ETFS, BROAD MARKET INDICES, HERE 111.

SPY OR HIGH DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS.

OK DO THAT.

THIS IS ALL YOU NEED TO DO FOR YOUR ENTIRE LIFE.

ONCE YOU GET MAD MONEY YOU CAN TRY AND LOSE IT, OR GET RICHER.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:28 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/if-the- ... ician.html


On the S&P CHART AT THE end, you can see the price GO BELOW TREND.

THAT means the trend is broken. It paves the way for lower prices after this dead cat bounce.

Fed propping only works for a SHORT while.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:07 pm

For the fourth quarter, 72 S&P 500 companies have issued earnings warnings, twice as many as have issued positive guidance, according to FactSet.

CASH IS KING. This is going to take awhile

BUT FIRST WE NEED TO FINISH THIS BEAR TRAP. (DEAD CAT BOUNCE, RELIEF RALLY)

IF necessary this is a good time to sell.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:36 pm

When KEN FISCHER says these things end in V bottoms, you would not want to miss the recovery you RUN FOR THE HILLS.

I never thought I would read that, from anyone, let alone one of the very best investment advisers.

OMG

Run do not walk to your nearest bank. Cash is King.

The next leg down is coming.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:19 pm

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$RUT

Look for the broader market to do just this.

And so, the other broad market indices like russell 2000, Naz 100 and NYSE can form the basis for other market ETFs. Broad market indices, not sector etfs.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:09 pm

It is interesting all the cheer leading in the financial media.

Lots of people burning their integrity.

The market came up against resistance.

The lows will retest and fail.

Just a valuation call.

Politics will increase volatility and cause a severe overshoot on the valuations to the downside.

CASH IS KING

WAIT FOR VIX 45 AND TRIN 4.

THAT may not be the bottom. It will be a safe entry point. It will be much safer than other points.

The alternative, bleed equity.

Flat earnings often turn negative.

Predicted flat earnings are MORE than enough to tank a market that is overvalued.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:57 pm

If you had to sell for your tuition or mortgage, that was the time.

The market rolled over, gently.

In other news they plowed my street at least 8 times today, covering curve to curve and removing the snow at the end of the driveway

They must have my address since I worked for our new County executive.

Great
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:14 pm

MarketWatch: Index fund pioneer John Bogle dies at age 89.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index ... 2019-01-16

John Bogle invented index funds.

His SPY equivalent is VOO. V for vanguard, and then 500.

In addition to being a total market they are the least expensive way to own a fund of stocks.

No one manages the fund per se. they just buy 500 stocks, for you.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:33 am

""It will take about two to three years" to phase out conventional drivetrains, Meunier estimated."

Nissan

Museum pieces in five years.

Book it.

Everyone will wonder why not sooner.

There is one answer to that. Elon was building his fortune with PayPal and other businesses.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:45 am

2%

EV current market share.

Who will be making what models and in what quantity when the EV market scales to

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

I am betting Tesla will continue to do more than fine.

Right now Tesla totally dominates BEVs and luxury cars in general.

2018/2019 Elon Musk goal of saving the planet took hold. Remember that is the goal, not cars per se.

While Tesla started Sixteen Years ago, ALL of the big companies save Toyota have decided to offer a full line of BEVs. In the last few days, seeing rivian, Ford announced a BEV F150 TRUCK.

THE revolution is in its fifth stage.

Inception
Early products
Early products for very few
Early products for hundreds of thousands
Widespread planning of massive fleets by the industry

This is where we see how long it takes a real OLD car company to totally rethink motor vehicles.

My first and second and third thoughts, Tesla should issue as much stock as needed to fund production of enough 3's, Y's, subcompact 3 and y, pickup medium and large, Buses, minivans, trucks, semis and the roadster by 2020, if not sooner.

McLaren ex Patriots are one year away from production on a state of the art full size SUV, and pickup truck. They call it Rivian. ( Yes, that McLaren)
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:01 am

Market direction will re emphasize valuation as earnings season begins.

Valuations are too high
Earnings are projected flat
No wholesale announcements of better earnings has occurred.

A move up if China settles will postpone the revaluation. It could readjust everything for some time until the market figures out the meaning of any settlement.

Still valuations are historically high.

We forcefully started reversion to the mean. That rarely stops on a dime, but generally walks its way down in steps over months to years.

Note Cramer and Fink say the bear is over. I am hoping they meant we are not down 20%.

That is true.

However I see the revaluation as ongoing.
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Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:36 am

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... icle-sales

1. Car sales remain in a range, they are NOT down. 17.8 for the year is near the top of the range.

Always check your own data. If they do not show you a chart, check the chart yourself.

2. Next the great recession killed car sales and a few companies.

3. The current range goes back around 20 years. If the market was not huge, you would just want to avoid entering a mature market like this unless you were, ah crazy.

4. Tesla opened sales for the three and instantly they got a 33% share of the luxury sedan market. Despite that you still get, Tesla deniers publishing articles.

5. Rivian ( actually McLaren electric vehicle company, the race car company ) seems poised to hit a similar home run with extra full sized pickup and SUV come 2020.(McLaren ex engineers own the company along with a few venture capitalists)

6. Seeing the model three decimate ALL luxury brand sales, there WILL be a shake out. ICE and BEV will find it difficult.

7. In 30 years, ONLY Tesla succeeded in marketing an electric vehicle other than a golf cart or a bumper car.

They must be very easy to make. Not. At least not to the precision instrument level.

A Tesla looks like it should be a surgical robot, it is so precise.

Just the facts.

Car sales are flat if you use the correct graph.

Tesla sales are kind of skyrocketing.

Anyone in the industry who speaks against the monumental change taking place is just having a hard time more than likely.

8. Tesla is growing. However as soon as they perceive one area has too many workers, they trim. Again overall head count is rising, as more factory workers are set to making cars.
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