MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:43 am

Tesla model 3 achieved homologation for the EU and is shipping 3000 cars per week. ( if they can find them to ship)

Of note, Audi did not get homologation for its new e car. Oh.

I had to look it up, They approved Tesla Model 3 for distribution but not the Audi. Large word, they made me look it up, you did not have to.

So, apparently approval is pending for the Audi.

More cars to make in Fremont? The cars will get made somewhere.

The pps is in the 300 range, that is a very hot buy.

If the 4th qtr does not make money it will cut the pps. There is a chance of that, then I would buy MORE.

Frankly, I DO NOT expect much increase in overall production until they have another factory or line somewhere.

THEN we break the glass and send the pps to the next range. until then range bound.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Jan 22, 2019 2:51 pm

The retest started today.

Most stocks are trading WITH the market.

CASH IS KING.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby Bucky » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:01 pm

what's the latest buzz on IMGN? My original $500 is $250 as of today.
User avatar
Bucky
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 50423
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 6:24 pm
Location: You_Still_Have_To_Visit_Us

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:45 pm

Bucky wrote:what's the latest buzz on IMGN? My original $500 is $250 as of today.

Buy 50 more shares. That way if you recover half of your current loss you actually break even!
Drunk and stupid is no way to be remembered but it is an easy way to forget.

But I took them away from all that. Now they work for me.
User avatar
Uncle Milty
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 21224
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 11:10 pm
Location: Wardrobe by Botany 500

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:31 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-ea ... 2019-01-28

113 of 500 companies report this week

I do not have info of great earnings for the market in general. Isolated companies do not count. They would be special situations, that will still tend to move with the market in general.

The market should retest the lows.

Cash is King.

I would wait on all buying.

At vix 45 trin 4

Buy buy buy.

Until then cash is King.

This represents no change.

There is no reason to buy until you see capitulation. At capitulation most everyone is selling.

Get me out orders will prevail. These are panic orders.

And then we have the political situation.

I expect no positive political news.

When the BIG negative political news hits that will weigh on the market.

On the day of the panic double the number of shares in your chosen companies. Shares, not money. You get more shares for the money that way.

I am still pointing towards March, it could be sooner, days like that are hard to miss.

It could be Sept.

Until then cash is King.

Going back to the political, Mueller finally said multiple Trump campaign personnel knew about the emails in advance.

Mueller has not named them yet.

The first hard Russia connection is made.

Up until now, they have been pursuing those they know have more evidence against the core group.

Based on recent events the Mueller probe has a ways to run.

It could peak in February as reported, but it has a long way to run, unfortunately.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:31 pm

For instance, while IMGN should report a positive April study and go on to get approval and has an excellent pipeline, short term the pps will crater with the rest of the market. Of course, if the April study is not positive then all of the previous studies pointing to a positive were not correct. The April result is the medium term key. Remember this is mad money.

If you look at IMGN's first compound, Kadcycla, it was developed with Roche, who now owns Genentech. It is a monster ADC. IMGN sold that compound to Roche. The April study should open the path to similar revenue as Kadcycla.

You ONLY know if you do a double blind study and so that result will be key for the medium term. Long term the ADC concept is very much appropriate and continues to show positive results.

The preliminary studies and the technology support a positive April study. IOW, there is reason to believe the study WILL show significant improvement over placebo, but there is always doubt until they print the result.

Remember this is mad money. It is worth taking a risk after you have established a firm base. It is like Poker. As long as you have a large bankroll to start and you study then over time you can develop the skills to win. It is not gambling, it is more like Poker. ( Unless you just gamble constantly playing poker) Tight aggressive with your mad money is similar to investing in a stock of this sort. HUGE institutional support and excellent technology.

down and then up in anticipation of April, but then the april result will control. The run up studies support a positive result. The only way to know is get the final report. Given the work with this compound to date, it supports buying on the DIP with mad money.

THE THREE STUDIES PUBLISHED SINCE THE FIRST MENTION INCREASED THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE STOCK. There were THREE positive studies. They were not the final studies. The final study is coming for one compound in April. The other two compounds are just beginning their evaluation with a positive early study.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:43 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/01/30/tes ... nings.html

Future

45-65% increase in car sales in 2019.
Adjusted EPS: $1.93 versus $2.20, according to average estimates compiled by Refinitiv
Revenue: $7.23 billion versus $7.08 billion, according to average estimates compiled by Refinitiv

You can read the rest of the details.

So this year revenue will be around $40 billion.

With the many challenges, the ramp up led to two quarters of excellent revenue and profit.

That projects a PE for the year of 30 or so. This is a reasonable PE for an exploding company, and many would say that PE is low for a company growing this fast.

There is a remarkable level of criticism for a company growing this fast.

In the same article an analyst proclaims the year ahead will be difficult, and the projected Auto sales are going up 50% or more.

There are few companies prescient enough to trim excess costs as aggressively as Tesla as it continues to grow this fast.

At the end of the year, head count will be higher given that 50% more cars will be built.

This company takes the time to focus even as it grows extraordinarily fast.

The stock continues to be a buy, with an actual PE. Usually PE starts very high as you transition to profitability.

Growing g this fast the forward PE is going to shrink.

Buy on the dip.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby Bucky » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:51 pm

WaPo KILT musk in an article today...for having $700K worth of air travel in 2018. Mighta thunk Pacino wrote the article!

and, a little surprising to me, the write himself got KILT in the comments. I mean MURDERIZED.
User avatar
Bucky
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 50423
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 6:24 pm
Location: You_Still_Have_To_Visit_Us

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:57 pm

What happens if you blink on the dip?
Drunk and stupid is no way to be remembered but it is an easy way to forget.

But I took them away from all that. Now they work for me.
User avatar
Uncle Milty
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 21224
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 11:10 pm
Location: Wardrobe by Botany 500

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:46 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/fed-lea ... anged.html

Fed changes tune. Continues some quantitative tightening.

As a general strategy ignoring the market and just buying the SPY is always fine.

If you are a doing that you would not be reading this thread.

Next Goldman noted the major chips will suffer nvda numbers.

Earnings projections and OVER VALUATION are driving the market.

The FED is catching up BUT quantitative tightening is constricting the market.

The market will follow the revaluation trend in the short to medium term.

Translation, at most a little higher followed by a retest.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:38 am

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-pate ... belong-you

More guidance for the Auto industry as Tesla continues to dominate.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:49 am

Uncle Milty wrote:What happens if you blink on the dip?


You won't blink, it will get your attention.

If you go sailing that week you closed your eyes for a week.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:23 pm

Tesla buys Maxwell. It is worth googling this company. Apparently short bursts of energy are important, not sure why.

Also essentially Maxwell has next or next next gen battery technology.

I can remember folks talking $20000 battery. It is down to $10000 and dropping.

The battery cost and performance are key to making the functional Everyman car.

In a BEV, the battery is the thing.

How do you make an electric motor? I am not going to tell you, except to say it is not hard, you can do it in a few hours, and it will last for 1000 years.

Google a basic electric motor prn. Then go out and make one with your middle school child.

Done.

Certainly the Tesla motor/transmission is high tech, but it is not a dollar sink like ICE.

73 million autos, 24 million commercial vehicles sold per year.

Tesla is doing the r&d for the world. They are showing the auto world their next car and truck and semi truck.

Then they GIVE the tech to the huddled masses. YES Auto industry executives are all huddling around the warmth of the ancient and soon to be museum pieces of ICE.

ICE do generate s lot of heat after all, the ICE executives have only cold winter days in their future unless they switch immediately to BEV

BEV are much better vehicles in every aspect, if Tesla makes them.

In ONE QUARTER, Tesla cornered the small sedan luxury market. The crushed the C class, the 3 series, and so on out selling their nearest luxury competitor by at least 100% and taking one third market share.

Now Tesla is focusing on starting Europe and China. Tesla CANNOT supply all of the markets at once. Tesla is capacity constrained, by a factor of A LOT!!!

Yes Scarlet, musk does give a damn and is burning down the entire motor vehicle industry by making superior products.

This is amazing. Except for one thing, musk ALREADY did the same thing in rocketry. Musk destroyed the launch market except for national vanity projects.

Note Bezos started at the same time. While it looks like he will catch up, first in the space would doom all but the company run by the guy who is richer than most countries.

21 space rocket launches per year is a record.

Several hundred thousand motor vehicles gets you awards and BILLIONS of dollars but on their own, Tesla would not corner the market in 100 years.

Rocketry is cornered now they are CREATING new markets with their next gen rocketry and satellites.

Back to TESLA

The Tesla market is insanely huge. 100 million units sold per year.

As for or the stock

Buy on the dip, as always. The consolidation in this range is a golden ticket to retirement.

And with today's acquisition the pps of TSLA stayed at par.

( That is not a golf term in this usage, Bucky)
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:18 am

This just in to the news room.

Immunotherapy for psoriasis improves coronary artery disease.

This is preliminary. It also fits teliologically.

This would not be something you pick up at the drug store. It is also not going to be available soon.

It is just very interesting.

I will say, since it involves an approved drug, it could be available a lot sooner than if this was a brand new therapy.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:27 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/warren- ... treet.html

FOLLOW WARREN BUFFETT AT ALL TIMES.

Now, there are MANY TIMES when Warren does not buy. It has to do with book value per share.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:28 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/earning ... -bad-.html

Earnings for the S&P are now at 0.3 percent for the first quarter.

Yellin noted the next fed move may be to lower interest rates.

Cash is King, this is a good time to raise cash.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:38 am

Electrek: Tesla is setting up casting lines in Gigafactory 1 ahead of Model Y production.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/07/tesla-ca ... roduction/

And now the HUGE demand car, the Y.

ROADSTER, SX3Y.

Here we go in late 2019, early 2020.

Musk has stopped with the insane predictions he has to alter.

This year production wise is about ramping the model 3 production, then introducing/finalizing/producing the Y, semi and roadster.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby Bucky » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:29 am

but 'ramping up model 3 production' includes having M3s rolling off the shanghai gigafactory line by end of year. and they just broke ground last month. That's Elon Time to the extreme.
User avatar
Bucky
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 50423
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 6:24 pm
Location: You_Still_Have_To_Visit_Us

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby TenuredVulture » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:04 am

Sell Wells Fargo short.
Be Bold!
User avatar
TenuredVulture
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
 
Posts: 50895
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 11:16 pm
Location: Magnolia, AR

Re: MAD MONEY read first post do that first

Postby joboggi » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:06 pm

Probably. Do not follow.

They were told they are not permitted to grow.
User avatar
joboggi
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:16 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Here We Go Again!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests