Kyle Lohse? (signs with STL)

Postby Trent Steele » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:45 pm

phuturephillies wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:Just for fun, does Feliz's value increase since our pitching staff in crap?


If the majority of the staff had high groundball tendencies, yes. But in our case, no.

2007

Hamels: 1.13
Myers: 1.32
Moyer: 1.08
Kendrick: 1.55
Eaton: 1.06

I dont know off hand, but I think the ML average is around 1.20. So Kendrick is really the only guy who will see a big benefit.


Myers career ratio is 1.48 (although it was lower in 2006). He did not use his 2 seam fastball much when he became the closer; mostly 4 seamers and curveballs. I would expect to see it much more this year and see many more groundballs as well.

Hamels and Moyer may have lower GB rates, but they also see many more RHB and rely on the hitter getting out in front of their main pitch. One would think they would have a greater number of GB hit to left side of the infield.
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Postby Trent Steele » Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:56 pm

Would I have signed Loshe for $4 million? Yes.

But, please, can we stop acting like this is some kind of season changing event?

Loshe had a freaking 5.10 ERA in September last year and gave up a playoff series-ruining grand slam to Kaz #$!&@ Matsui. He had a few good starts against the Braves, but was pwned by the Mets in his two starts. If Benson can get healthy, he is a better pitcher than Loshe.
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Postby Trent Steele » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:01 pm

phuturephillies wrote:Most people here are down on Kyle Lohse. But ask yourself this. Would you rather have Lohse starting the 2nd game of the Mets series on April 9th, or JD/Chad Durbin or Travis Blackley?

rofles indeed.


Not going to happen. The Phillies need a 5th starter only 2x before the end April 18: The 6th and 11th. The Phillies have all but officially stated that they will only use the 5th starter when needed until Benson is ready. So, you'll see Rosario on the 6th and 11th (mark it down; he's out of options and throws 99 mph). Moyer, Kendrick, Myers will start the Mets series.
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Postby phuturephillies » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:12 pm

Hmm, yeah I looked at the schedule quickly and miscounted.

I'd be fine with Rosario as the #5, but its not going to happen.
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Postby Trent Steele » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:15 pm

phuturephillies wrote:Hmm, yeah I looked at the schedule quickly and miscounted.

I'd be fine with Rosario as the #5, but its not going to happen.


Especially after today. ROFFLESARIO
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Postby phuturephillies » Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:18 pm

His command is just piss poor, and I didn't even watch today's debacle. He throws hard, but he cant spot any of his pitches. If he dialed it back to 93 to gain extra command, I think he'd still be ok.
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Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Mar 14, 2008 3:06 pm

The Red Tornado wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:If Costanzo sticks with the Orioles and outperforms Feliz, I'm going to freak out. Look for me lying naked with the lions at the Philly Zoo.


but they'll have him as a DH/1B not at 3B, wont they? (not that I want Feliz)


That's right, I forgot they still had Mora.

So maybe I'll go to the monkey cage instead.
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Postby smitty » Fri Mar 14, 2008 3:48 pm

I think the Phillies wrote off Lohse a long time ago. Back when he turned down their original offer. It looks like the rest of the league did the same until the Cardinal staff ended up being Wainwright and Looper and pretty much no one else.

The Mets, who have the same starting pitcihg problems as the Phillies didn't go for Lohse at the reduced price. Neither did a whole bunch of teams who aren't all that strong in their starting rotation.

I think the Phils decided a while ago that Benson was going to be their backup plan. And that was that.

I don't think the signing of Feliz had much, if anything to do with not signing Lohse this week.

The Phillies are a conservative organization and they get very rigid minded once they make up their minds about some things. I think they made up their mind that they had a choice between chasing Lohse or signing Benson. And they chose Benson.

The Phils haven't panicked when most of their pitchers have been bombed this spring. Normally, that's a wise thing because spring training results don't mean so much most of the time. But when 60 percent of your rotation is questionable and they are getting bombed it's hard to remember this is only spring training.

I'm not defending the Phils thinking and actions here. I'm just trying to make sense of it.
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Postby phuturephillies » Mon Mar 17, 2008 1:22 pm

Kyle Lohse's one-year contract with St. Louis is well below his early-offseason demands, but Lohse has posted league-average ERAs in two hitters' parks since coming over to the NL in the middle of 2006. He's always been a guy with better stuff than his results would indicate, but moving to a neutral park and to a team with several plus up-the-middle defenders (Cesar Izturis, Yadier Molina and perhaps Colby Rasmus) should all help him perform better than that. One year and $4.25 million for 180-200 innings of league-average or better pitching is an unbelievable bargain, and another feather in the cap of new Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, who's done a nice job in a difficult situation and avoided long-term commitments in a bad pitching market this winter.


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Postby smitty » Mon Mar 17, 2008 1:53 pm

Law is mostly right there regarding Lohse I think. I'm not sure how much more he'll benefit from his home park since he had a 3.03 home ERA last year. The Phillies up the middle defense is pretty good too.

It could be that the thing that help's Lohse the most is having Duncan as a pitching coach. He's had some nice success with guys like Lohse in the past.

Mozeliak has recently lost 60 percent of his starting rotation to injury so I'm not sure how much of a genius he is for picking up Lohse. A lot of teams, including our fightins, need pitching and passed on him so there's something going on here but me and Mr. Jones don't know what it is.
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Postby dajafi » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:11 pm

smitty wrote:A lot of teams, including our fightins, need pitching and passed on him so there's something going on here but me and Mr. Jones don't know what it is.


I think it's mostly that teams had tapped their budgets. Certainly in the Phils' case we know they were interested enough in Lohse to make him an offer that was way more than he eventually got; that money simply wasn't there by the time he signed.
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Postby philliesphhan » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:16 pm

I still think collusion is a definite possibility
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Postby phuturephillies » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:17 pm

dajafi wrote:
smitty wrote:A lot of teams, including our fightins, need pitching and passed on him so there's something going on here but me and Mr. Jones don't know what it is.


I think it's mostly that teams had tapped their budgets. Certainly in the Phils' case we know they were interested enough in Lohse to make him an offer that was way more than he eventually got; that money simply wasn't there by the time he signed.


...which says a lot about the way the team is run. Signing Lohse for $5M x 1 wouldn't have put them into luxury tax mode. It wouldn't have taken money away from an already thin draft budget, and wouldn't have taken money away from their already very thin Latin America budget. It would have taken money out of their potential profits.
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Postby smitty » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:25 pm

phuturephillies wrote:
dajafi wrote:
smitty wrote:A lot of teams, including our fightins, need pitching and passed on him so there's something going on here but me and Mr. Jones don't know what it is.


I think it's mostly that teams had tapped their budgets. Certainly in the Phils' case we know they were interested enough in Lohse to make him an offer that was way more than he eventually got; that money simply wasn't there by the time he signed.


...which says a lot about the way the team is run. Signing Lohse for $5M x 1 wouldn't have put them into luxury tax mode. It wouldn't have taken money away from an already thin draft budget, and wouldn't have taken money away from their already very thin Latin America budget. It would have taken money out of their potential profits.


There's a good chance Lohse is worth a couple of wins. For St. Louis, a couple of wins probably won't mean anything. For the Phils, it would be huge. so he is absolutely worth paying 5 million simoleans to increase the chance of the team being in first place and making the playoffs and all of that other stuff that adds mucho dollars to the bottom line.

The Phils don't really think in this way though. I bet they figure Myers, Hamels, Kendrick and Moyer are four starters. Eaton and the rest of the 5th starter guys make one more (whoever emerges). And Benson is their emergency guy who may emerge to take the place of someone.

So they figure they are set. Lohse or the Phils burned the bridge it looks like. It doesn't make sense to us but it does to them I guess. There are certainly things regarding this whole thing that we don't know. But it is weird that it took a team losing 60 percent of their starters to sign him.
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Postby MattS » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:51 pm

phuturephillies wrote:...which says a lot about the way the team is run. Signing Lohse for $5M x 1 wouldn't have put them into luxury tax mode. It wouldn't have taken money away from an already thin draft budget, and wouldn't have taken money away from their already very thin Latin America budget. It would have taken money out of their potential profits.


i think they see it that way, but in reality, he adds a couple wins at $5MM. that's profitable-- it increases the odds of making the playoffs by about 10% and increases revenues simply by winning more games. my biggest issue with the phillies is that they do not properly maximize profits, but simply minimize chances of suffering a loss.

smitty wrote:The Phils don't really think in this way though. I bet they figure Myers, Hamels, Kendrick and Moyer are four starters. Eaton and the rest of the 5th starter guys make one more (whoever emerges). And Benson is their emergency guy who may emerge to take the place of someone.


See, I think they are afraid of having 6 starters. I think they don't see Eaton as really having a role anymore if someone emerges, but they do see Benson as earning the role if he's able to be healthy. I think they viewed Benson as a substitute for Lohse, and that was part of my issue with the Benson signing. They don't want to have Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Kendrick, and Lohse, and then have Benson show up in May with nowhere to put him.

At the same time, I do think it's more about reaching their perceived budget-- which probably is the highest they could manage without suffering a loss if they don't make the playoffs, but not the payroll level that maximizes profits.
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Postby ek » Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:06 pm

phuturephillies wrote:
Kyle Lohse's one-year contract with St. Louis is well below his early-offseason demands, but Lohse has posted league-average ERAs in two hitters' parks since coming over to the NL in the middle of 2006. He's always been a guy with better stuff than his results would indicate, but moving to a neutral park and to a team with several plus up-the-middle defenders (Cesar Izturis, Yadier Molina and perhaps Colby Rasmus) should all help him perform better than that. One year and $4.25 million for 180-200 innings of league-average or better pitching is an unbelievable bargain, and another feather in the cap of new Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, who's done a nice job in a difficult situation and avoided long-term commitments in a bad pitching market this winter.


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Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:39 pm

Carlos Silva's line today: 4.1 innings, 13 hits, 10 runs (9 earned) -- against Milwaukee's B team.

Think about how much we'd be flipping out about this. 9.20 ERA on the spring.
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