Batting Tee vs Hanson, Phillies/Braves, GDT 4/20/10

Postby swishnicholson » Wed Apr 21, 2010 8:50 am

I agree the statistical evidence is insufficient to conclude that Madson is ill-suited to be a closer and we should probably reserve judgment. The trouble is Manuel doesn't really have that luxury. A ton of decisions-is a batter in a slump, or too old, is a pitcher going through a rough patch, or have the hitters caught up with him, is this guy someone who can play every day or better off as a role player, etc.-have to be made before there's enough of a track record to decide things definitively. Good decisions are ones based on facts, but also ones that are ahead of the curve. Anyone can observe a whole season and then decide whether a player was used correctly.

I still think Madson's the best choice to close now, and might even be when Lidge returns. but I'd have no problem if Manuel feels otherwise and can understand anyone else feeling that way too.
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Postby ek » Wed Apr 21, 2010 8:53 am

it's inexplicable to me how he just lost the zone all of the sudden to jones with no one on and one out. it's almost like he was scared of him or something
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Postby jamiethekiller » Wed Apr 21, 2010 8:54 am

ek wrote:it's inexplicable to me how he just lost the zone all of the sudden to jones with no one on and one out. it's almost like he was scared of him or something


i think its insane he left two fastballs right down the middle of the plate to two power hitters.
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Postby Trent Steele » Wed Apr 21, 2010 8:54 am

meh. these things happen. he's 3 for 4 in SVO. no big deal. everyone blows a save once in a while.
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Postby ek » Wed Apr 21, 2010 9:04 am

the pitch to heyward was a changeup jtk
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Postby jamiethekiller » Wed Apr 21, 2010 9:15 am

ek wrote:the pitch to heyward was a changeup jtk


AAIIIEEEEE

still down broad street.
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Postby Eem » Wed Apr 21, 2010 9:53 am

jamiethekiller wrote:
ek wrote:the pitch to heyward was a changeup jtk


AAIIIEEEEE

still down broad street.


It was more like Pattison. Heyward just got it.

Still, walking Chipper was by far the worst part.
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Postby TheDude24 » Wed Apr 21, 2010 10:24 am

Shouldn't a starting pitcher get a chance to complete his shutout? Maybe I'm missing something.
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Postby Eem » Wed Apr 21, 2010 10:29 am

TheDude24 wrote:Shouldn't a starting pitcher get a chance to complete his shutout? Maybe I'm missing something.


He was over 100 pitches, was giving up some hard-hit balls and was due up second in the 9th.

Of the people to blame this one on, Charlie is probably 500th.
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Postby joe table » Wed Apr 21, 2010 10:37 am

phorever wrote:stats purists are going to hate me for this, but i'm going on the record.
ryan madson has convinced me: closer mentality exists.


The only person who could definitively answer that in this case is Madson himself.

Maybe a April save opportunity does feel completely more daunting mentally from an important 8th inning situation with a slim lead in the playoffs, which he pitched out of consistently on the way to a WS victory. Does he think it's a lot different? It's definitely possible. I say that non-sarcastically, I don't know and probably never will

I think in terms of coping with pressure though, what he has been able to achieve in the playoffs in has career suggests that he's not a "sissy."

I don't observe that his talent is any different between the innings FWIW. He was throwing 96 last night, and Crashburn posted the numbers from last year where his walks and strikeouts were actually better in the 9th

He's still the guy I want pitching in the highest leverage spots in this bullpen right now
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Postby Harpua » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:05 am

Awful headline on MLB.com for this game:

'Pen of Philly can't get o'er homers of the Braves


Juuuuuuuuust a bit of a stretch.
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Postby Harpua » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:07 am

I've already heard from several people today that Madson's definitely isn't a closer. And I'd like to show them some stats, but I don't know how to counter that 18-for-38 career save conversion figure.
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Postby Barry Jive » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:08 am

The Eeming Tree wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:
ek wrote:the pitch to heyward was a changeup jtk


AAIIIEEEEE

still down broad street.


It was more like Pattison. Heyward just got it.

Still, walking Chipper was by far the worst part.


pretty amazing movement to get it going perpendicular
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Postby jeff2sf » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:10 am

Harpua wrote:I've already heard from several people today that Madson's definitely isn't a closer. And I'd like to show them some stats, but I don't know how to counter that 18-for-38 career save conversion figure.


I'm taking no position on Madson's fitness as a closer. However, I may punch someone in the nose the next time they point out the 18-38 number. AT LEAST ten of those blown saves were not in the 9th inning. That means that he had no chance of making that a save, the best he could do was a hold. It's such a stupid statistic to begin with and when people then use it to say it's something it's not, Jeff SMASH!
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Postby Trent Steele » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:12 am

maybe they should have madson pitch the 8th and 9th so he gets confused and doesnt realize he's teh closer
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Postby joe table » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:30 am

18-38 is a fallacy, as people have said. Setup guys get blown saves for losing leads

He blew 4 saves in 14 opps the 9th last year (2 pitching as the setup man reg season). He has blown 1 save this year pitching in the 9th inning on 4 opps

From 2003-2008, he had 5 total saves (ie, was not used as a closer basically ever). I am not going to go back through all the game logs, but 15 of those 20 "blown saves" occurred during that period, when he was used extremely rarely as the actual closer
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Postby Bakestar » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:40 am

jeff2sf wrote:
Harpua wrote:I've already heard from several people today that Madson's definitely isn't a closer. And I'd like to show them some stats, but I don't know how to counter that 18-for-38 career save conversion figure.


I'm taking no position on Madson's fitness as a closer. However, I may punch someone in the nose the next time they point out the 18-38 number. AT LEAST ten of those blown saves were not in the 9th inning. That means that he had no chance of making that a save, the best he could do was a hold. It's such a stupid statistic to begin with and when people then use it to say it's something it's not, Jeff SMASH!


what jeff said; it's unfair to give a guy blown saves when he has no practical opportunity to earn actual saves in the process.

KILL THE SAVE STAT. KILL IT TILL IT'S DEAD!!!!
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Postby joe table » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:46 am

F it, I'll go through the game logs. Won't take too long

2003: 1 appearance, not a save situation

2004: Pitch in a save situation in the 9th 1 time, converted. Blew 1 save while pitching in the 8th inning

2005: Blew 7 saves. By inning of appearance: 7th, 8th, 7th, 7th, 7th, 7th, 6th. 0 save opportunities in the 9th inning

2006: Pitched mostly as a starter. 2 saves, 2 blown, 2 save opportunities in the 9th inning, recored both saves. Two blown saves by inning: 6th, 7th

2007: Recorded 1 save by pitching the final 3 innings in an 8-4 victory. 1 blown save came, in the 8th inning

2008: 1 save opportunity converted in the 9th. Two blown saves by inning: 7th, 8th

2009: 14 save ops in 9th inning, 10 converted, 4 blown. Two blown saves in 8th inning

2010: 3 saves in 4 9th inning save ops, 1 blown

Total saves/ops as closer in 9th: 17/22
Mop-up saves (3+ IP in blowout): 1

Total blown saves as non-closer: 15
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Postby Harpua » Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:56 am

Jeeesus. I guess there's the answer. (Though for people who have already made up their minds on Madson, evidence likely won't change anything.)
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Postby Wheels Tupay » Wed Apr 21, 2010 12:58 pm

Trent Steele wrote:meh. these things happen. he's 3 for 4 in SVO. no big deal. everyone blows a save once in a while.



Steele, I do not respect your cool headed reasonable thinking at all sir.
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I dont even know what to say. I think he mispelled TuPac
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