Would you make this trade?

Would you?

Yes
33
69%
No
15
31%
 
Total votes : 48

Would you make this trade?

Postby FTN » Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:51 pm

Considering everything there is to consider, would you trade Carlos Carrasco, our #1 ranked prospect, currently at A+, for Mark Teahen?

I ask this for a few reasons.

1. I've seen speculation from Keith Law, among others, that Teahen will be traded, because his move to RF has not gone very well. He's a natural 3B, he's above average defensively there (+20 RAR in 109 games last year), but KC has Alex Gordon as their 3B for the next 6 years, and Billy Butler is likely to end up being the full time DH, leaving Teahen either in RF, LF, or 2B.

2. We know Wes Helms isn't the long term answer, and Mike Costanzo projects to be more of a backup at this point.

3. Alex Rodriguez is the only potential 3B target in the offseason, but if he opts out, there will be a bidding war for his services, and it will cost whoever signs him at least 20 million per year.

So, what say you?
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Postby ek » Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:53 pm

sure, why the hell not
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Postby GrizzledVeteran » Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:53 pm

TINSTAAPP. Yes.
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Postby Wizlah » Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:54 pm

Yup. 3B our most glaring gap long term, especially since we didn't put in for Iwamura.
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Postby bigegypt0417 » Wed Apr 11, 2007 1:55 pm

he's going to be 26 and also doesnt seem to have spectacular numbers. do we really need to trade a top pitching prospect to get him?


am i missing something?
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Postby FTN » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:01 pm

bigegypt0417 wrote:he's going to be 26 and also doesnt seem to have spectacular numbers. do we really need to trade a top pitching prospect to get him?


am i missing something?


His numbers last season were a dramatic increase from his 2005 performance, and his .871 OPS was good for an OPS+ of 117. Plus, as I mentioned, he's a plus defender.

I don't think this is a clearcut thing. Carrasco looks outstanding, but that's based only on his 2006, as his 2005 was a disaster. He's likely going to spend all of 2007 at Clearwater. 2008 he'll start at Reading, and he might get a callup, but it's not likely he'll make a significant contribution until 2009 at the earliest.
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Postby Wizlah » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:02 pm

bigegypt0417 wrote:he's going to be 26 and also doesnt seem to have spectacular numbers. do we really need to trade a top pitching prospect to get him?


am i missing something?


last year, in 109 games and 393 at bats, he posted .357 obp and a .517 slg for the Royals. that's good power with a reasonable obp. Good enough for me.

Floppy, I wish you hadn't posted this trade possibility. I looked at that line a second time and started salivating. No way this happens.
Last edited by Wizlah on Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:03 pm

His AAA numbers last year are pretty eye-popping. Does that mean anything?
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Postby FTN » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:07 pm

Phan Paul wrote:His AAA numbers last year are pretty eye-popping. Does that mean anything?


His development seems like it may have been rushed a bit. In 2004, he put up a .962 OPS at Midland (AA) at age 22. From 2004-2006, the Texas league played fairly neutral, and Midland suppressed both HR and 2B, so his power numbers there look good. He was promoted to AAA that season for 300+ AB, 70 of them coming for Oakland, 260 for KC after he was traded. In 2005, his age 23 season, he spent a lot of the year in the bigs, and probably wasn't ready for it. In 2006, he was back in AAA, this time he raked, and they brought him up and plugged him in for the rest of the season, where he produced an .874 OPS with 46 XBH in 393 AB. He also drew 40 walks to 85, but his minor league numbers indicate that ratio could improve as he gets acclimated to the majors on a full time basis without hopping back and forth between AAA.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:08 pm

I say yes--Carrasco could turn out to be the next Pedro Martinez, but pitching prospects in A+ ball are about as far from a sure thing as you can get.

That being said, the deal really only makes sense if the Phils plan to use Teahan a lot this year--they've got to be ready to sit Helms from time to time, and Teahan should be the first bat off the bench.
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Postby jemagee » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:09 pm

Yes

cause i heard billy beane liked him at one time
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Postby Woody » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:10 pm

Well, considering the only way can guarantee Carrasco will be a stud is if we were to trade him, I say do it!
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Postby GunbladeVIII » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:22 pm

GrizzledVeteran wrote:TINSTAAPP. Yes.


Word. Same here, same reason.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:51 pm

OK, now that we have agreed that this is a good deal for the Phils, we have to consider whether KC would make this deal.

In part, the answer depends on whether the Phillies make the best offer. I'm not sure an A+ pitching prospect gets it done. Sure, we'd all jump at the chance to throw in Rowand, and there are other players who aren't really contributing now that we could easily give up. But what if it takes a player who actually contributes, or is close to contributing at the major league level? What about say Carrasco+Bourn?
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Postby BassGuiFloyd » Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:58 pm

Do the trade. This is actually one of the most interesting topics to me on this board in a while. Carrasco regressing really would not be unexpected to me.
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Postby FTN » Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:02 pm

Phan Paul wrote:OK, now that we have agreed that this is a good deal for the Phils, we have to consider whether KC would make this deal.

In part, the answer depends on whether the Phillies make the best offer. I'm not sure an A+ pitching prospect gets it done. Sure, we'd all jump at the chance to throw in Rowand, and there are other players who aren't really contributing now that we could easily give up. But what if it takes a player who actually contributes, or is close to contributing at the major league level? What about say Carrasco+Bourn?


Kansas City really is limited in pitching prospects. Luke Hochevar is really their only legitimate pitching prospect. They have a few fringe guys, but no one with the success of Carrasco.

The thing is, you can't really predict what Carrasco is going to do. He could develop into the best pitching prospect in baseball in a year and a half, or he could repeat his 2005 and still be in High A next year. With Teahen, you already have an idea of what you're going to get. I wasn't really sold on him last year, but after looking at his numbers a bit more, and seeing what he did in 2/3 of a season last year in the bigs, coupled with his AAA performance, and I feel a bit better about him. He's young, he has less than 2 years of service time, and he's above average defensively.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:15 pm

FTN wrote:
Phan Paul wrote:OK, now that we have agreed that this is a good deal for the Phils, we have to consider whether KC would make this deal.

In part, the answer depends on whether the Phillies make the best offer. I'm not sure an A+ pitching prospect gets it done. Sure, we'd all jump at the chance to throw in Rowand, and there are other players who aren't really contributing now that we could easily give up. But what if it takes a player who actually contributes, or is close to contributing at the major league level? What about say Carrasco+Bourn?


Kansas City really is limited in pitching prospects. Luke Hochevar is really their only legitimate pitching prospect. They have a few fringe guys, but no one with the success of Carrasco.

The thing is, you can't really predict what Carrasco is going to do. He could develop into the best pitching prospect in baseball in a year and a half, or he could repeat his 2005 and still be in High A next year. With Teahen, you already have an idea of what you're going to get. I wasn't really sold on him last year, but after looking at his numbers a bit more, and seeing what he did in 2/3 of a season last year in the bigs, coupled with his AAA performance, and I feel a bit better about him. He's young, he has less than 2 years of service time, and he's above average defensively.


Right--which is why I think there's a real chance that it will take more than Carrasco to do this deal. And at that point, the question is what else would you be willing to give up? Based on what you've said, they need outfielders. I'd give up Bourn, but not Victorino.
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Postby WilliamC » Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:17 pm

If the deal becomes our best pitching prospect(Carrasco) + Bourn I definitely wouldn't do it.

The original deal that FTN layed out I would probably do.
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Postby Woody » Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:20 pm

Sadly, I'm not sure Gillick even knows who Mark Teahen is, or what the Royals' third base situation looks like.
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Postby Doll Is Mine » Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:23 pm

I'd give Helms a little more than a week before I decide whether he's a bust or not. I think he, along with Dobbs, could make for a decent duo at the corner, with Nunez getting the occasional start, if they're given the chance.
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