How bad is the Phillies bullpen?

How bad is the Phillies bullpen?

Postby FTN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:39 pm

It's this (makes arm motion) bad. Take a look at the Phillies bullpen as a whole, and then the individuals, in terms of WXRL, my favorite reliever statistic. What is WXRL? It's Win Expectation Above Replacement, Lineup Adjusted. Baseball Prospectus calculates the stat, I don't have the exact formula.

The top reliever in the NL in terms of WXRL is Tony Pena of Arizona, who checks in at 4.276, with Billy Wanger at 4.239 in second place. The first Phillie on the list is the now injured Ryan Madson, who checks in at #33 in the NL with a WXRL of 1.473. Guess who the Phillies second best reliever is? It's the recently outrighted Clay Condrey, who has a WXRL of 0.952, good for 43rd in the NL. Here is the ranking of National League bullpens, based on WXRL. I've included total innings pitched in the pen. The innings totals are taken from BP, and then I used Baseball-Reference to figure out how many innings to subtract from the pitcher's total if he's split time as a starter and reliever, because starters do not accumulate WXRL.




Code: Select all
TEAM   WXRL   IP

ARI   10.874  315.2
SDP    9.963  344.0
LAD    9.393  340.2
WAS    8.495  384.0
NYM    7.944  321.0
STL    7.704  345.0
MIL    7.228  316.2
ATL    6.565  353.0
SFG    5.588  297.0
PIT    4.991  324.0
CHC    3.937  308.1
HOU    3.715  302.0
FLA    3.300  389.0
PHI    1.854  308.2
COL    0.946  306.0
CIN    0.020  312.0


Awful. Only the Rockies and Reds are below us, and the Reds are just flat out awful. You could basically bring up their AAA bullpen, replace their current bullpen, and you wouldn't see much of a difference....but maybe that's what they are doing. Anyway, I digress. Here are the individual numbers for all Phillies relievers


Code: Select all
NAME      IP    WXRL   
Madson   56.0   1.473 
Condrey  24.1   0.941 
Myers    38.0   0.817 
Alfons.  38.1   0.446 
Romero    7.2   0.434
Durbin    5.1   0.216
Sanches  12.2   0.109 
Mesa     22.0   0.053
Garcia    0.2   0.009
Bisenius  2.0   0.003
Geary    40.2  -0.005
Smith     4.0  -0.137
Lieber    2.1  -0.139
Castro    3.2  -0.230
Gordon   13.1  -0.380
Zagurski 19.2  -0.415
Hernandz 14.1  -0.578
Rosario  20.1  -0.763


And finally, we'll look at leverage. The higher the number, the more stressful the situation/innings are.

Code: Select all
NAME      LEV   WXRL

Durbin    2.53   0.216
Gordon    1.71  -0.380
Romero    1.49   0.434
Alfonsec  1.38   0.446
Smith     1.36  -0.137
Madson    1.32   1.473
Zagurski  1.01  -0.415
Myers     0.99   0.817
Condrey   0.97   0.941
Geary     0.92  -0.005
Rosario   0.90  -0.763
Mesa      0.77   0.053
Sanches   0.71   0.109
Garcia    0.61   0.009
Castro    0.57  -0.139
Hernandz  0.38  -0.578
Bisenius  0.35   0.003


The usage here isn't quite as bad, with Myers being the only guy that wasn't used at the right time...well, I guess Smith too, he was used in pressure situations while he was here and he sucked hard. Zagurski killed the team while he was here, for the most part, in only slightly above average leverage situations. Gordon sucked too I guess....eh, they pretty much all suck, except for the guy we just outrighted off the 40 man roster.

Bring back Clay Condrey!!!!!

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Postby Phight On! » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:44 pm

So the guy with the 6.29 ERA and 1.68 WHIP was our best reliever?

Really?
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Postby Bob Loblaw » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:46 pm

You know, I have an accounting degree and these numbers confuse the #$!&@ out of me.
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Postby FTN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:52 pm

Phight On! wrote:So the guy with the 6.29 ERA and 1.68 WHIP was our best reliever?

Really?


His numbers are skewed by 3 appearances

5/19 v TOR: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 ER
5/27 v ATL: 0.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 ER
6/1 v SFG: 2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 ER

His overall line

24.1 IP, 32 H, 10 BB, 17 ER, 6.29 ERA

Remove those 3 appearances

21.2 IP, 21 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 1.27 ERA

So yes, he is.

His ERA since that 6/1 blowup is 1.48. 12.2 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 2 ER (both in the same appearance, mopup work in the 15-3 win at LA)
Last edited by FTN on Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby dajafi » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:52 pm

I think you have to remember the sample size caveat in any evaluation of relievers.

Check out Clay Condrey's game log. You'll see that he earned wins with extra-inning work in three games (May 23, June 28, July 25). As it happened, he was unscored-upon in all three, but allowed runs in about 40 percent of his other appearances.

That said, take out Condrey's one truly awful game--six runs in 2/3 of an inning May 19 against Toronto--and his ERA is 4.18. So his year has been better than his raw numbers suggest, but probably not quite as good as BP's more advanced metrics would have it.
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Postby FTN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:54 pm

dajafi wrote:I think you have to remember the sample size caveat in any evaluation of relievers.

Check out Clay Condrey's game log. You'll see that he earned wins with extra-inning work in three games (May 23, June 28, July 25). As it happened, he was unscored-upon in all three, but allowed runs in about 40 percent of his other appearances.

That said, take out Condrey's one truly awful game--six runs in 2/3 of an inning May 19 against Toronto--and his ERA is 4.18. So his year has been better than his raw numbers suggest, but probably not quite as good as BP's more advanced metrics would have it.


Yeah, I covered that in my above post. He had 3 bad outings in May that have killed his overall numbers. Since 5/1, he's been nails.
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Postby dajafi » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:55 pm

FTN wrote:
dajafi wrote:I think you have to remember the sample size caveat in any evaluation of relievers.

Check out Clay Condrey's game log. You'll see that he earned wins with extra-inning work in three games (May 23, June 28, July 25). As it happened, he was unscored-upon in all three, but allowed runs in about 40 percent of his other appearances.

That said, take out Condrey's one truly awful game--six runs in 2/3 of an inning May 19 against Toronto--and his ERA is 4.18. So his year has been better than his raw numbers suggest, but probably not quite as good as BP's more advanced metrics would have it.


Yeah, I covered that in my above post. He had 3 bad outings in May that have killed his overall numbers. Since 5/1, he's been nails.


I wrote my post while you put yours up. Didn't mean to be redundant...

I'd rather have Condrey than Mesa or Geary at this point.
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Postby jemagee » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:56 pm

i'm gonna go with really bad for 100 alex...
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:56 pm

How does the leverage number work?
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Postby FTN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:57 pm

Phan Paul wrote:How does the leverage number work?


1.00 is considered "average" in terms of the pressure of the situation. The higher the number, the higher stress the situation.

Leverage measures how important the situations a reliever has been used in are. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game. Leverage values below one represent situations that are less important than the start of a game (such as mopup innings in a blowout). Leverage values above one represent situations with more importance (such as a closer protecting a one-run lead with bases loaded in the 9th inning).

Mathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring (or allowing) one run at the start of the game.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:51 pm

FTN wrote:
Phan Paul wrote:How does the leverage number work?


1.00 is considered "average" in terms of the pressure of the situation. The higher the number, the higher stress the situation.

Leverage measures how important the situations a reliever has been used in are. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game. Leverage values below one represent situations that are less important than the start of a game (such as mopup innings in a blowout). Leverage values above one represent situations with more importance (such as a closer protecting a one-run lead with bases loaded in the 9th inning).

Mathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring (or allowing) one run at the start of the game.


So Charlie has really misused Gordon.
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Postby FTN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:55 pm

Well yeah. Gordon was awful in the beginning of the year, but he was clearly pitching hurt, and I'm not sure where the blame lies there. Manuel used him in those spots because he didn't have much better to use.
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Postby traderdave » Wed Aug 01, 2007 4:16 pm

With respect to FTN, did we really need all those stats to tell us that the Phillies bullpen is among the worst in MLB? Anybody who has watched a Phillies game this year knows the answer to that question.

That said, FTN's (and company's) avatar makes it all better!
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Postby stevemc » Wed Aug 01, 2007 4:24 pm

Can you get "splits" from this information? Wondering if the stats are available for the last month or post-all star. Seems to me the pen has stepped up with some additions and changes. Now the starting pitching? . . . . .
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Postby FTN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 4:26 pm

traderdave wrote:With respect to FTN, did we really need all those stats to tell us that the Phillies bullpen is among the worst in MLB? Anybody who has watched a Phillies game this year knows the answer to that question.

That said, FTN's (and company's) avatar makes it all better!


It's one thing to say something is bad, it's another to actually see just HOW bad it is.

stevemc wrote:Can you get "splits" from this information? Wondering if the stats are available for the last month or post-all star. Seems to me the pen has stepped up with some additions and changes. Now the starting pitching? . . . . .


I can't, but folks at BP might be able to tell you that.
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Postby jemagee » Wed Aug 01, 2007 4:32 pm

Jonny Marz

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Postby FTN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 4:28 pm

Would anyone like to present a case for Geoff Geary being on this team over Clay Condrey?
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Postby Ace Rothstein » Thu Aug 02, 2007 4:34 pm

FTN wrote:Would anyone like to present a case for Geoff Geary being on this team over Clay Condrey?



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Postby FTN » Fri Aug 03, 2007 11:28 am

At least Condrey is back. Sad thing is, Geary will still get higher leverage innings.
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Postby pacino » Fri Aug 03, 2007 11:36 am

after reading through this thread(missed it the first time) it seems that Condrey's surface numbers are a bit misleading...though it's a little sad that we need to count on this guy to be in our bullpen
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